Syz the moment

Initial jobless claims remain stuck in a remarkably stable range of 200,000–230,000, while continuing claims are hovering around 1.8 million. For more than two years, recession fears have dominated headlines. Yet the one indicator that typically flashes red before a downturn still isn't doing it. Yes, workers who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new ones, pushing continuing claims higher. But companies are not laying off employees at the pace you would expect ahead of a recession. That's the key distinction. 📌 The labor market is cooling, not collapsing. For the Federal Reserve, that's an important signal. As long as layoffs remain contained, policymakers can stay focused on inflation instead of rushing to support the economy. Jobless claims remain one of the strongest pieces of evidence that the U.S. economy is slowing—but not yet heading into an imminent recession. Source: YCC Macro

Source: Hedgeye

More than 55% of Americans now own stocks, the highest participation rate in the world. With new retirement programs bringing millions more investors into the market, Wall Street is becoming deeply intertwined with household wealth, retirement security, and even politics. The implication is profound: future policymakers may face overwhelming pressure to prevent prolonged bear markets. Some believe that, in the next major crisis, the Federal Reserve could even follow Japan and China by purchasing equity ETFs to stabilize markets. Whether or not that happens, one thing is clear: the growing financialization of the US economy is reshaping how investors think about downside risk—and may help explain why markets continue to recover so quickly after every sell-off. Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg

He also renewed his demand for US control of Greenland, arguing the Arctic island is strategically vital against growing Chinese and Russian influence. The remarks revive one of the biggest sources of tension within NATO, as European leaders fear a weakening of the US security commitment. With around 80,000 US troops stationed across Europe, any significant withdrawal would mark a historic shift in transatlantic security and reshape the continent’s defense landscape. Source: FT

*TRUMP: OTHER RETAILERS SHOULD FOLLOW WALMART'S LEAD Source: zerohedge

$360 million in short positions were liquidated today. Source: Bull Theory

The White House confirmed it is now putting the legal and operational framework in place to formally manage the reserve. The US already holds 328,372 Bitcoin worth roughly $25 billion—about 1.56% of Bitcoin's circulating supply—making it the world's largest known government holder. What's remarkable? None of it was purchased. Every Bitcoin was seized through criminal and civil asset forfeitures, and the government has pledged not to sell a single coin. Meanwhile, a separate Digital Asset Stockpile will hold seized cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and XRP. The bigger story is what comes next. Congress is considering the American Reserves Modernization Act, which would authorize the Treasury to acquire 1 million Bitcoin over five years with a minimum 20-year holding period. If approved, it would mark the first time a nation actively accumulates Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Source: Bull Theory on X

Stocks now make up a record-high share of U.S. household assets, Axios reports. American household wealth is now more tied to equities than ever before, making consumers more exposed to market swings. Source: Coin Bureau