Consensus has been positioning for a split congress (the House with the democrats and republicans keeping the Senate) but it might be wrong as a democrat sweep now looks like a real possibility.
Indeed, over the last few weeks, polymarket odds were showing a rising probability of Trump losing control of the Senate, but that trend accelerated sharply recently (see the chart below)! Source: Polymarket
Here are the S&P 500’s best-performing stocks of 2026
Source: Brew Markets
The gap between US earnings growth and the rest of the world has never been wider
Earnings of US companies have grown nearly +1,300% since 1990. By comparison, earnings of global companies excluding the US have risen +500% since 1990. In other words, US earnings growth has been 2.6 times larger than the rest of the world. This comes as global ex-US profit growth has remained roughly unchanged between 2008 and 2025. The US economy is in a league of its own. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Personal Savings Rate hits 2.6%, the 2nd lowest level in the last 65 years
Source: Barchart, CNBC
Diesel trading as if Brent was $180
Source: zerohedge
An interesting dichotomy...
Long-dated US Treasury 30y yield (in red) is rising based on the de-dollarization narrative (Fed credibility and/or fiscal fears) Meanwhile, USA CDS (in green) is trading at its lowest level (best credit risk) since before the start of the war... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Foreign demand for UST 20Y paper has collapsed as Indirects plunge to 52.5%, lowest on record.
Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
The corporate buyback blackout begins this week
Approximately 40% of S&P 500 companies are expected to enter blackout periods. This transition typically tempers one of the market’s most consistent sources of demand. Source: TME, GS
