TARIFF REFUNDS ARE POURING BILLIONS INTO AMERICA’S BIGGEST COMPANIES
More than 40 S&P 500 companies reported $9.6B in tariff refunds, including $2.1B already received in cash. - Apple: $2.2B - Nike: $986M - FedEx: $800M - Amazon: $640M - GM: $500M Companies are getting their tariff money back, but the higher prices passed on to consumers haven’t come down. FedEx, Costco and Amazon say they’ll return tariff refunds to customers. Source: Bull Theory
Speculators are now the most long on the U.S. Dollar in more than a decade
Source: Barchart
On the back of the cooler than expected PPI this morning (which followed the cool CPI), rate-hike expectations (for 2026) tumbled further yesterday to their lowest since Warsh's first FOMC meeting...
Source: zerohedge
In the month of July, the US Government collected $334 Billion. Just one problem…
They spent $766 Billion. A $432 BILLION deficit. In one month. Source: Geiger Capital
President Trump just now: “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” and Iran’s IRGC is “decimated and fleeing.”
Source: Bull Theory
US inflation continued to cool in July, broadly in line with expectations.
US CPI confirms disinflation is continuing, not accelerating. Headline CPI: 0.1% MoM, in line with 0.1% consensus Core CPI: 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY, unchanged Core CPI: 2.5% YoY, down from 2.6%. Lowest since March 2021. Real average hourly earnings: +0.2% YoY Energy fell 1.5% in July, and gasoline dropped 2.9%. Core goods inflation remained contained at 0.2% YoY. There is no inflationary case for a rate hike. At least at this stage. The absence of an upside inflation surprise was enough to reassure markets, with US equity futures moving higher following the release. On the less positive side: 1/ Inflation is still above target 2/ Further relief might be difficult to achieve if war in Iran keeps going Source. Daniel Lacalle
Yesterday, the 10-Year Treasury Note Auction drew an interest rate of 4.683%, the highest since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis
Source: Barchart
US intervention has failed this time
USD/JPY is now back to the same level where the US intervened to strengthen the yen. Also, USD/JPY rallied almost 0.9% yesterday, its biggest daily gain in 5 months. At this pace, we might see USD/JPY above 164 in a few weeks again. Source: The Macro Paper
