Rate-change expectations for The Fed in 2026 shifted dovishly back into 'cut' territory today
Source: zerohedge
So it was just a textbook squeeze?
The short-term trendline and the 21-day MA sit slightly higher, alongside the former range lows, now acting as resistance. As there is no TACO yet and looking at futures this morning, does not seem we will go through resistance today. Source: TME
In case you missed it... The US job market continues to deteriorate
Job openings fell -358,000 in February to 6.88 million, giving back most of the January jump. The 3-month moving average continues to fall, now at ~6.89 million, now below the 2018-2019 pre-pandemic levels. There are now just 0.9 job openings for every unemployed worker, near the lowest of the current business cycle. By comparison, the ratio peaked at 2.0 in 2022, meaning available jobs per unemployed worker have been cut in half. Total separations have also dropped to a decade low, suggesting employers are neither hiring nor firing, effectively freezing the labor market in place. The job market is quietly weakening beneath the surface. Source: Global Markets Investor, wolfstreet
Maybe not the TACO everyone was expecting
S&P 500 futures are rallying following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had told aides he was willing to end military hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The plan to reopen the strait would stretch the conflict far beyond his projected 4-6 week timeline so instead, he’s deferring to diplomacy or shifting the burden onto allies. The United States initiated a war that shut down a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil shipments—and is now preparing to exit without reopening it. Five weeks. More than 3,000 dead. $200 billion requested. Over 300 Americans wounded. Oil prices have surged past $100. The risk of a global recession is climbing. Asian countries are rationing fuel. Gulf allies are enduring nightly bombardments. And the strait that sparked the entire escalation remains under Iranian control...
Trump just posted that France refused to let U.S. planes loaded with military supplies for Israel fly over French territory.
He said hashtag#France has been "VERY UNHELPFUL" with the Iran war. "The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!" NATO is having a moment... Source: Mario Nawfal Truth Social
Midterm years have been notoriously weak for the stock market. But year three of the Presidential cycle has been extremely strong…
Source: Bespoke
Institutional investors are dumping US equities at a massive pace:
Investors sold -$9.3 billion in US equities last week, bringing the 6-week total to -$13.5 billion. This comes as sales of single stocks surged to -$8.3 billion, the 4th-largest since the Great Financial Crisis. Institutional investors led with -$11 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, retail investors remained sellers for a 2nd consecutive week. Hedge funds returned to buying at +$1.8 billion, but they have sold -$4.9 billion over the last 4 weeks. Professional investors are running to the exit. Source: Global Markets Investor
The recent net selling by hedge funds is the third largest over the last decade.
Talk about risk-off! When the dust settles there will be some great opportunities. Source: Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
