THE HOUSING MARKET JUST WOKE UP
The U.S. housing market is showing a sharp revival, driven by a 28.5% surge in mortgage activity last week. Triggered in part by President Trump’s plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds, the 30-year fixed rate briefly dipped below 6%, fueling demand. Refinances jumped 40% week-over-week (up 128% vs. last year), while total applications soared as long-idle borrowers finally acted. Economists note this reflects pent-up demand rather than just temporary post-holiday noise, signaling a potential broader market rebound. Is the sub 6% era back for good, or is this a temporary window? Source: CNBC
CPI Holds at 2.7% YoY as December Rebound Falls Short of Fears
The headline CPI print rose 0.3% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp) driving prices up 2.7% on a YoY basis (vs +2.7% YoY exp). Many expected a December pickup due to the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November. So the headline number is basically below most of “Whisper” numbers. Source: Charlie Bilello
U.S. Companies issued $95 Billion worth of bonds during the first week of the year, the highest weekly volume since Covid
Source: Barchart
Jamie Dimon: U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Despite Softer Labor Markets
$JPM JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: "The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time..." Source: The Transcript
US government interest payments are now up to an annualized record of $1.47 trillion.
The Sovereignty Trap: By offshoring industry to China for higher margins, the West traded its independence for cheap labor; China now controls the minerals essential for Defense, EVs, and tech. Resource vs. Currency: The ability to print money is irrelevant if China refuses to sell the raw materials required for survival and industry. The Great Rebuild: To regain independence, Western nations are aggressively reshoring industry, stockpiling minerals, and rebuilding infrastructure. The Irony of Tech: Building the "New Economy" (Silicon Valley, AI, Green Tech) is impossible without massive amounts of "Old Economy" materials like copper, lithium, and steel. Source: Topdown charts, LSEG, Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
CPI: 2.7% YoY vs. 2.7% expected Core CPI: 2.6% YoY vs. 2.7% expected
Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad measure of the costs for goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the headline all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations. Source: CNBC Peter Tuchman, @EinsteinoWallSt
"US flip from exceptionalism to expansionism is best case for a contrarian US dollar long" (BofA Hartnett)
Source: TME
All major equity markets outperformed the US in 2025
Source: Goldman
