Tech has had quite the month so far... and we're not even halfway done
Source: Trend Spider
AI TOKEN COSTS ARE DOWN 40% FROM THEIR MAY PEAK.
The main reason? Chinese AI models are dramatically cheaper. DeepSeek, Qwen and Kimi are delivering increasingly competitive performance at 10–35x lower token prices than many U.S. alternatives — and already account for as much as 46% of usage in some enterprise segments. The pressure is spreading. OpenAI, Google and Anthropic have responded by cutting prices by as much as 80%. This creates an interesting dynamic: Cheaper inference → more AI adoption → more token consumption → more demand for compute. But at the same time, it is compressing margins and commoditizing the intelligence layer. The likely long-term winners could therefore be the hyperscalers and infrastructure providers: even if the price per token collapses, exploding volumes can more than compensate. AI intelligence may become a commodity. AI compute may not. And markets still seem far from fully pricing that shift. Source: Austral Research, zerohedge
Dell is up +11% today after Super Micro's record AI server orders boosted confidence across the entire sector.
$DELL has already built a $51.3 billion AI server backlog and raised its own revenue guidance to $60 billion. Its partnership with Nvidia gives it integrated AI infrastructure that larger enterprises are increasingly betting on. Source: Bull Theory
Andy Bechtolsheim wrote Google a $100,000 check before it even had a bank account.
That $100,000 check is worth $15 billion today. Andy Bechtolsheim is a billionaire German-American electrical engineer, investor, and tech entrepreneur. He co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982 and Arista Networks in 2004. Source: Bull Theory
The SOX semiconductors index has posted just three positive sessions over the past 13 trading days.
While the index is well below its 50-day moving average, it still sits comfortably above the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving average coincides with the longer-term uptrend, creating an important technical support zone. Until positioning is further reset, expect elevated volatility and erratic price action. Source: TME
At the top 1% of AI-spending firms, AI spend per employee is on track to exceed average software-engineer pay by the end of the year.
Source: Hedgeye
Hyperscaler bond basket: another day, another record wide
Source: zerohedge
From this chart, it seems very clear what the most crowded trade is...
Source: BofA
