The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.0% over the next twelve months.
Source: Hedgeye, Bloomberg
There is a record $8.19 trillion in money market funds right now.
Source: KoyfinCharts
WTI crude hits session highs, pushing 10Y yields to dangerous territory: 4.35% any second
Source: zerohedge
US Treasury just did the largest Treasury buyback in HISTORY.
Treasury bought back $15,000,000,000 of its own debt to improve liquidity. Source: Bull Theory
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade
Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds And this has nothing to do with China paying higher yields… - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the biggest energy crisis, foreigners are choosing panda bonds over USTs. Source: Bloomberg, Lukas Ekwueme
Chinese government bonds have sidestepped a global debt sell-off since the start of the Iran war, emerging as a haven from soaring energy prices and rising global inflation.
Source: FT
Do NOT expect bond volatility (MOVE index) to go down as long as oil prices stay elevated...
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
European bond markets are having one of their worst months in a decade.
Italy's 10-yr yield hit 4.14% - highest since mid-2024. France's touched 3.9% - highest since 2009. Spain's at 3.7% - highest since 2023. The last time Eurozone borrowing costs moved this fast was in the 2022 energy crisis. The difference is that one cost €651 billion to contain. Source: FT, Nic @nicrypto
