When rates start to matter... NASDAQ versus inverse US 10-year yields remains one of the biggest macro dislocation charts out there.
Let's keep in mind that bond volatility is exploding higher JUST AS hyperscalers enter the most capital-intensive spending cycle in modern tech history. Source: The Market Ear
We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place.
Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising. Source: Robin Brooks
Another day, another new high for JGBs yields... Countdown to more BOJ QE as JGBs go bidless.
Source: zerohedge
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ARE HITTING KEY LEVELS
While the S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high of 7,501, the bond market is pricing in higher interest rates for longer. The 30 year yield is at 5.085%. The 20 year is at 5.092%. The 10 year is at 4.538%. Every maturity is rising at the same time. Stocks are at all time highs because the AI boom is driving earnings and the market is pricing in years of continued growth. Bond yields do not care about AI. They care about a $2 trillion annual deficit, oil at $100, persistent inflation and a government borrowing more money every single day to fund a war. Can the equity markets bull run if bond yields keep rising? What's your take? Source: Bull Theory
Yields on 10y gilts have risen well above 5%, reaching their highest level since 2008 due to the UK government crisis.
Keir Starmer's premiership appears to be hanging by a thread after his much-anticipated policy reset speech on Monday - in response to the Labour Party's poor performance in recent local elections - failed to deliver the shift many MPs demanded. Starmer said on Tuesday that he wasn't going anywhere, but with calls for his departure mounting, he looks to be fighting a losing battle. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Japan's 20Y bond yield rises as high as 3.511%, highest since 1996 as global interest rates go vertical
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
How does the sp500 perform when the US 10 year yield crosses key levels?
With the long bond over 5% and the 10yr dancing around 4.50%, maybe it is worth to have a look at it again... Kantro had nice look back at the median weekly stock returns versus yields - see chart below. Source: Kantro, RBC
The bond market’s inflation outlook just collapsed from over 5.3% to 3.0% over the next twelve months.
Source: Hedgeye, Bloomberg
