When do equities start to care about rising bond yields???
The US 10-year yield has breached 5.1%, with a 16bp daily rise, the second-largest one-day move in two years. For equities, GS argues the rate of change matters more than the level. The moves that tend to get stocks’ attention are roughly 50bp over a month or 30bp over two weeks. We are close, but not there yet: the 10-year is up about 35bp over the past month and 25bp over two weeks. Still, as GS’s Ben Snider has highlighted, with the S&P trading around 19x forward earnings, higher yields are already working against valuations in the background. Source: GS, TME
The extra yield France has to pay over Germany on 10-year debt is going vertical.
Source: Bloomberg
Yesterday was the worst day in global bond markets in quite some time.
It's making some speculate that Trump cuts a deal with China tomorrow: they export more refined product to the world in return for which they get their way with Asia. Source: Robin Brooks
Despite rising yields, Japan’s net interest payments as a share of GDP are projected to remain among the lowest in the OECD in 2027.
Source: Japan Economy Watch (The Daily Shot)
SoftBank is seeking more than $11 Billion in junk bonds in what would be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever, per Bloomberg.
Part of the money will be used to fund another investment in OpenAI. SoftBank has now committed almost $65 billion to OpenAI and has already sold $15 billion of bonds this year, making it the biggest junk-rated borrower in bond markets in 2026. Its borrowing costs are also rising, with its 2031 dollar bond yield hitting 8.2%, up from 6.7% in January. Source: Bull Theory
US Treasury yields are flashing a warning for tech stocks
US Treasury yields are raising concerns for tech stocks. The 10-year yield has climbed above 5%, a level historically associated with sharp Nasdaq 100 pullbacks. Because technology stocks are valued heavily on future growth, they are particularly sensitive to higher bond yields. With the S&P 500 already near record highs, a further rise in the 10-year yield, especially above 5.10%, could increase the risk of a market correction. Source: Global Markets Investor
Another interesting divergence
-> UST 30Y yields (in red) are soaring -> Inflation long-term market expectations Swap Forward 5Y5Y (in green) are flat since the start of the war... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge
An interesting dichotomy...
Long-dated US Treasury 30y yield (in red) is rising based on the de-dollarization narrative (Fed credibility and/or fiscal fears) Meanwhile, USA CDS (in green) is trading at its lowest level (best credit risk) since before the start of the war... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
