The bond market is sending a clear message: inflation fears are fading.
The 2-year breakeven inflation rate is now lower than it was at the start of the year, signaling that investors expect less inflation over the next two years. With oil prices continuing to soften, markets are increasingly pricing in disinflation, not a resurgence in inflation. Forget headlines and forecasts—breakeven inflation reflects where investors are putting real money. The narrative is shifting from inflation panic to lower inflation expectations. Are markets right, or are they underestimating inflation risks? Source: Bloomberg, Manish Singh
Nvidia is planning to sell at least $20bn of investment-grade debt in the US its first bond sale in more than five years in a test of investor appetite for further exposure to the AI sector.
Source: FT
"The relationship between what the US government's debt is doing and stock prices has flipped in a big way. In fact, this is the most extreme yields-stocks relationship this entire market cycle."
Source: Daily Chartbook
JUST IN: SPACEX HAS REPORTEDLY LINED UP INVESTMENT-GRADE CREDIT RATINGS FROM ALL THREE MAJOR AGENCIES
Per Bloomberg, citing sources: - Moody's, Fitch, and S&P Global all have SpaceX at investment grade - The ratings are reportedly being communicated privately ahead of Friday's $SPCX IPO debut - All three agencies publicly say they have not issued ratings The backing: - Google $GOOGL cloud services deal: $30B through mid-2029 - Anthropic compute deal: ~$45B over the next 3 years - Combined contracted revenue: $75B The Q1 financials: - Revenue: $4.69B (vs $4B a year earlier) - Net loss: $4.28B (vs $528M loss a year earlier) CreditSights expects SpaceX to issue investment-grade debt shortly after the IPO. The company has a $20B bridge loan due September 2027. Per CreditSights' Zachary Griffiths: "Negative earnings are not typically associated with an investment-grade company, but nothing about this is typical." Source: Evan, IPO Newsroom
Oil falls. Yields rise. Something has shifted
Oil down 15% in three weeks. The two-year yield up 15bps last week to 4.15% - its highest since early 2025. For the first time in months, US macro is back in the driving seat. Source: Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro
Breaking: Hyperscaler Bond Issuance Soars
In 4+ months in 2026 it is already more than in 2025, and several times more than the average of previous years. Their Free Cash Flow is dropping to 0. -> They must sell stocks, or slow down AI CAPEX. Source: BraVoCycles Newsletter
When rates start to matter... NASDAQ versus inverse US 10-year yields remains one of the biggest macro dislocation charts out there.
Let's keep in mind that bond volatility is exploding higher JUST AS hyperscalers enter the most capital-intensive spending cycle in modern tech history. Source: The Market Ear
We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place.
Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising. Source: Robin Brooks
