Given the relation between sovereign's rating and spreads to Germany, a spread of 135bp would be consistent with a BBB- rating.
That's France this afternoon: just one notch away from "junk bond" territory. Source: Stephane Deo
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for over 6 years (74 months), by far the longest in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Another look at the "Aligator jaw" 10y UST yield (in blue) vs. oil (in red)" which took place yesterday...
This was NOT expected Source: Sam Kovacs
Another all-time high in the spread between French and Swiss 10-year yields.
The spread is widening almost as fast as it did during the 2011 euro crisis. Source: Karel Mercx
US 10-year Treasury yield is up 54 basis points this month, the biggest monthly jump since October 2024.
Source: Bull Theory
A staggering $8.44 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new all-time high
Source: Barchart
"Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking."
NY Fed Pres John Williams speech yesterday (below) pushed the prob. of a down to hike to 44% (chart). ------------------------------------------------------ New Fed guidance: “There is no need for urgency.” John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors. He lays out his base case: One more hike “may be appropriate late this year.” Here is the key passage from the NY Fed president’s prepared remarks on Tuesday afternoon: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals—and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.” “If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.” Source: Jim Bianco, Nick Timiraos
Short positions are surging in Treasuries.
Time for a squeeze? Source: Coffee Capital, bloomberg
