BITCOIN VS GOLD
- Gold rallied first in 2016 → Bitcoin followed months later (+30x into 2017) - Gold rallied again in 2019 → Bitcoin followed into 2020–21 - In 2025, gold surged to new highs while Bitcoin lagged - Since 2020, BTC–gold correlation: 0.14 Historically, gold has led. Source: Ark Invest Tracker @ArkkDaily
IS THE BOTTOM IN FOR BITCOIN? Aggregated data says "Squeeze Incoming
Aggregated data shows extremely negative Bitcoin funding rates, signaling overcrowded short positions. Historically, similar conditions preceded a market bottom and an 83% rally within four months. Negative funding means short sellers pay longs, increasing squeeze risk if prices rise. High leverage amplifies liquidation potential, forcing rapid buying. This imbalance reflects widespread fear and low confidence. Although not guaranteeing immediate gains, such extreme sentiment often creates conditions for reversals. Investors should remain patient, avoid emotional reactions, and monitor funding dynamics closely. Source: Santiment
Another data source for analyzing BTC and Bitcoin ETFs on the Bloomberg terminal: BTC volatility
James Seyffart @JSeyff
Most recently, $BTC bitcoin hasn’t been behaving like the end-game hedge… far from it.
Since Japanese rates started ripping higher last autumn, gold and BTC have moved in almost perfect opposition. Source. TME, LSEG
The "Bitcoin is dead" narrative just jumped the shark
Each cycle, Bitcoin is declared “dead,” but this ignores a deeper structural shift in monetary sovereignty. Behind the negative headlines, fundamentals are advancing: major U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act), rapid institutional adoption through asset tokenization, and crowded bearish positioning near the 200-week SMA. The transition from speculative asset to institutional financial infrastructure is painful but ongoing when the bear case relies on fear narratives, it often signals that the structural shift is already underway.
As shown on the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and bitcoin look like twins...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin is experiencing severe sell-off pressure, with one of the worst days of the decade similar to past crisis moments (COVID crash, Terra Luna, FTX).
BTC is extremely oversold: daily RSI hit 16 and weekly RSI fell below 30 for only the 4th time ever. Historically, buying at these levels and holding for one year has delivered strong returns (+112% in 2015, +136% in 2019, +26% in 2022). Source: Trendspider
The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning". Source: Glassnode
