Syz the moment

Boring BTC remains the relatively soggy one... Source: TME

As shown below, bitcoin has a high correlation with unprofitable tech stocks and the Nasdaq.

* NEGATIVE (!) since Nov 12 * Lowest NAV since Mar 27, 2023 (SVB failure) * It reached -50.92% on May 12, 2022 (Terra/Luna collapse) * Consistently negative for 18 months (Jan 22 to Aug 23) The peak of 229% on November 20, 2024... this was the height of BTC excitement over Trump's win.

The filing, made this week with U.S. regulators, arrives just days after the bank criticized MicroStrategy, faced boycott calls over alleged crypto debanking, and pushed MSCI to consider excluding Bitcoin-heavy companies from major indexes. Now, the same institution is rolling out a product built to ride Bitcoin’s next major cycle. JPMorgan Unveils IBIT-Linked Note Built Around the Halving Cycle The structured note mirrors Bitcoin’s well-known four-year pattern: weakness two years after a halving, followed by renewed strength heading into the next one. With the last halving in 2024, JPMorgan is effectively positioning investors for a potential dip in 2026 and a surge in 2028. According to the filing, if IBIT hits or exceeds a preset price by December 2026, the bank will call the note and pay a minimum 16% return. But if IBIT stays below that level, the note extends to 2028 and the payoff becomes far more aggressive. Investors would earn 1.5x whatever gains IBIT delivers by the end of that year, with no cap on upside. High Rewards, High Risk The note also includes partial downside protection. Investors recover their principal in 2028 as long as IBIT doesn’t fall more than 30%. But once that threshold breaks, losses mirror the decline. JPMorgan warns that holders could lose over 40%, or even their entire investment, if Bitcoin collapses during the period. A Sharp Reversal in Tone From JPMorgan The launch comes amid a rapid shift in messaging from the bank. JPMorgan now says crypto is evolving into a “tradable macro asset class” driven by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation. Source: Trading View, Decrypt

Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge

Source: CNBC

• Carry trade blowup → BTC -31% • Tariff tantrum → BTC -30% • October 6th through today → bitcoin $BTC -34% Source: Bloomberg, Joe Consorti

While retail panic-sold the dip, something very different was happening under the surface. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1,000+ BTC just went vertical. That’s ~$91 million per wallet. Translation? Short-term hands are handing their coins straight into the pockets of deep-pocketed, long-duration buyers. And yes — they know exactly what they’re doing. Markets have been jittery: • Rate-cut uncertainty 📉 • Overheated AI equity spending 🤖 • The classic “crypto cycle fear” 😬 Sentiment gauges? Extreme fear. Long-term capital? Completely unfazed. Case in point: Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly tripled its BTC exposure last quarter — now sitting near $500M. These aren’t tourists. They’re the ones who buy when everyone else hesitates. So if you’re selling your Bitcoin today… You might want to take a closer look at who’s on the other side of your trade. Now zoom out 👇 Global liquidity is sitting at record highs — and still expanding. Over 80% of major economies are easing or injecting capital again. Crypto regulation is finally becoming clearer. Historically, when: ✅ Liquidity rises + ✅ Policy clarity improves → Risk assets rally. → Crypto rallies the most. Will it happen again this time? Source: Bitwise, Tommy Rogulj @tommyrogulj