Mind the gap...
France debt to GDP ratio ihas been diverging in a meaningful way vs. Germany debt to GDP. Rating agency Fitch already cut country's credit rating from AA to AA- last year, rating agency S&P has placed France under review... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
France's 2023 Deficit 'Significantly' Above 4.9%' (BBG)
France's budget (in)discipline... Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, France managed to keep its budget deficit below the 3% threshold (remember the Maastricht Treaty) just once (2018). This is far worse than Italy. France's debt-to-GDP ratio is at 110%, up from 64% pre-financial crisis. With potential GDP growth at a paltry 1% and declining, structurally low interest rates is needed to keep the debt burden afloat. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
France PPI YOY is the lowest since 2009...
Source: Bloomberg, Alessio Urban
In France, 3 out of the 4 favorite political leaders are from the far right...
1) Marine Le Pen (RN) 40%; 3) Jordan Bardella (RN) 37%; and 4) Marion Marechal Le Pen (Reconquête) 29%. Source: Le Figaro Verian - EPOKA / February poll
