Syz the moment

Meanwhile, European banks (SX7E) remain under heavy selling pressure. Source. TME

Yesterday (Wednesday), Carrefour reportedly plunged more than 13% after cutting its outlook, warning that looting and store disruptions could cost €80–200 million in operating income. But the damage extends beyond supermarkets. Debt near 119% of GDP. A deficit above 5%. Public spending around 57% of GDP. Now add unrest that hurts confidence, disrupts businesses and threatens tax revenues. The vicious circle tightens: → Persistent deficits require more borrowing. → Higher yields increase interest costs. → Weak growth complicates consolidation. → Political resistance makes reform harder. France is not inevitably heading for a debt crisis. But postponing difficult decisions keeps raising the eventual cost. The risk for Europe? A French fiscal shock would test the eurozone on a scale Greece never could. Source: Michel A.Arouet

🔹10-year yield = 5.11% 🔹OAT-Bund spread > 170 bps Source: Alexandre Baradez

Decades of fiscal slippage have pushed debt towards 120% of GDP. Now the arithmetic is tightening: Higher yields → higher interest costs → wider deficits → more debt. Modest growth makes that cycle harder to break. Reforms face fierce resistance. Political instability makes lasting consolidation harder. France’s economic model faces a tougher test as borrowing costs rise and debt accumulates. The question reaches beyond Paris: Can France stabilise its finances before market pressure turns a national fiscal problem into a eurozone crisis?

This benchmark was last reached in 2002. Investors grow increasingly concerned about the stability of the country’s politics and the state of its public finances. Meanwhile, Deutsche CEO Sewing sounds the alarm on #France: Its fiscal & political instability is a “wake up call” for Europe. The bond mkt is flashing red: France’s 10y spread over Germany has surged to 156bps, highest since 2011. Not a debt crisis yet, Sewing says. Source. HolgerZ, FT

The OAT-BTP spread continues marching higher, highlighting just how dramatically the market is redrawing Europe's traditional core/periphery divide. Source: TME

Meanwhile, today's Eurostat report shows eurozone industrial production contracted another 1.1% yoy. Europe’s energy shock is becoming an industrial competitiveness crisis. European diesel prices are approaching $200 per barrel, while eurozone industrial production has contracted by another 1.1% year on year. Germany’s industrial output is already almost 10% below its 2021 level. Another energy shock is hitting an industrial base with limited room to absorb it. The transmission mechanism is clear: → Higher transportation costs. → Higher production costs. → Renewed inflationary pressure. But pricing power has limits. When businesses can no longer pass higher costs on to customers, margins compress. Production is reduced. Investment is postponed. More factories become economically unviable. This is the risk of another stagflationary shock: weaker activity alongside higher prices. For the ECB, the dilemma is increasingly difficult. Raising rates could contain inflation, but would also weaken demand, increase sovereign financing pressures and accelerate industrial decline. Europe faces a growing risk that a temporary energy shock leaves permanent damage to its industrial capacity. Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 on X