Given the relation between sovereign's rating and spreads to Germany, a spread of 135bp would be consistent with a BBB- rating.
That's France this afternoon: just one notch away from "junk bond" territory. Source: Stephane Deo
Oil just crashed below $90 on reports that Europe may release its diesel and crude oil reserves.
Source: Bull Theory
NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: 46% chance Marine Le Pen wins the next French Presidential election
Source: Kalshi Politics
Another all-time high in the spread between French and Swiss 10-year yields.
The spread is widening almost as fast as it did during the 2011 euro crisis. Source: Karel Mercx
France is likely to face even higher borrowing costs due to its degrading creditworthiness, warns Vanguard
France now pays more to borrow than Italy. And Vanguard is warning the pressure could intensify. The $12 trillion asset manager sees deteriorating creditworthiness, political paralysis and an election that could bring further fiscal loosening. The bond market is already sending a message: 📈 French 10-year yields topped 4.8%, their highest since 2008. 📈 The spread over Germany briefly exceeded 120 basis points. 📈 France’s borrowing premium over Italy reached a record. Meanwhile, the deficit is expected to reach 5.5% of GDP this year. Next year’s planned debt issuance: a record €340 billion. Vanguard sees a German spread above 150 basis points as a strong possibility if public finances worsen. Some investors see a buying opportunity, arguing the risks are already priced in. But the central question remains: Can France restore fiscal credibility before markets demand an even higher price? Source: FT
The extra yield France has to pay over Germany on 10-year debt is going vertical.
Source: Bloomberg
Europe's largest company $ASML which makes the machines to make the most advanced semiconductors, sold $0 worth of product to customers within Europe last quarter.
Source: Evan
Something just broke in the French bond market.
“Safe” bank bonds now yield less than French government debt. French 10-year covered bonds—secured by ring-fenced pools of mortgages—now offer a lower yield than 10-year sovereign bonds. In other words, markets are pricing a pool of French home loans as safer than the French state itself. Why? France’s public debt has reached 117% of GDP. The government plans a record €310 billion of bond issuance in 2026. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield spread over Germany has widened to 90 basis points—the highest since 2012. This is more than a technical distortion. When government bonds trade at a discount to the bank debt they ultimately backstop, investors are sending a clear message: The sovereign balance sheet has become the risk. Bond markets often discipline governments long before voters do. Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS
