Syz the moment

France’s CAC 40 index is back in the red for the year after President Emmanuel Macron backed a temporary tax on the country's largest companies. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

Officials now expect stagnation at best, down from the previously projected 0.3%. This new forecast is even below consensus of +0.1%. As a result, Germany is falling further. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

As shown below, their weakening economy will impact the rest of Europe. Source: Michel A.Arouet, The World in maps

🔊 French Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced his new government on Saturday, ending months of political uncertainty after snap elections left the country with a hung parliament. The new cabinet takes a noticeable shift to the right. But this announcement does not seem to convince markets. 🚨 Indeed, for the first time since 2007, the yield on French 10-year government bonds (2.95%) exceeded that of Spanish and Portuguese bonds. And for the first time ever, the French OAT 5Y yield is now ABOVE the 5y Greek government bonds yield. Meanwhile, the spread with the German Bund has widened to 82bps (vs. 50 at the beginning of June), and the risk of political instability accentuates this trend. 🔔 These are clear signals that markets doubt the French government's ability to reduce its public deficit. The latter stands at 5.5% of GDP in 2023, well above the EU's target of 3% by 2027. ⚠ France is just unable to convince and reassure people of its ability to maintain a budget and a sustainable financial situation in the medium to long term. Source: Bloomberg

Germany's blue-chip index Dax jumped >19,000 points for the first time after Fed's jumbo rate cut. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Says inflation will drop to 2% in course of 2025. Our take: 👉 As widely expected, the ECB just cut its key rates for the second time this year after a first move in June. The Deposit Facility Rate (the rate at which commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are remunerated) was lowered by 25bp to 3.50%. The main Refinancing rate (the rate applied to short-term liquidity lent by the ECB to commercial banks) was lowered to 3.65%. 👉After those rate cuts, monetary policy remains restrictive, as short-term interest rates are still significantly above the inflation rate of the euro area. However, this is “another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction”, as stated by the ECB. 👉The ECB appears willing to proceed cautiously and gradually in bringing back its monetary policy stance to a neutral level, as domestic inflation remains higher than its target and wages are still rising at an elevated pace. The encouraging trend toward slowing wage growth witnessed recently has apparently not fully relaxed ECB’s concerns on the risk of persistent underlying inflationary pressures. 📈 ECB macroeconomic projections ECB staff’s projections have been revised slightly lower for GDP growth this year and in the following two. As reflected by the most recent economic data, growth will be soft this year, but it is expected to gradually accelerate in the next two years. Inflation is still expected to slow down toward the 2% target by 2026, with already a significant deceleration due next year. “Core inflation” projections have been marginally revised up for this year and the next on the back of firmer-than-expected price pressures in the service sector. 🚨 Conclusions • Since the rate cut was widely anticipated, today’s main news lies in the outlook for ECB rates. • A rate cut in December already appeared highly likely before today’s meeting and it remains so today, in the continuation of the quarterly pace initiated in June. • There was uncertainty around a potential additional rate cut at the October meeting, with future markets previously assigning a 34% chance on another rate cut at the ECB next meeting in October. • As inflation projections have not been revised lower today (even marginally higher for “core” inflation), and GDP growth expectations have only been marginally lower, the case for a step up in the pace of rate cuts appears less pressing now. The probability of an October rate cut dropped immediately after the announcement, to only 17%. Adrien Pichoud Source chart: Bloomberg

This boost in investment (which equals 5% of GDP), would be more than double the size of the Marshall Plan. In other words, Europe is about to unleash a historic orgy of debt and spending... It would most likely raises taxes (and inflation?) This announcement hits its wall of opposition in Germany, irrespective of warning that it’s the only way to make EU more competitive w/China & US. “That can be summarized briefly: Germany should pay for others. That can’t be a master plan,” FinMin Lindner said. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

From Robeco thru Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA.