Yesterday’s FOMC statement, interpreted through a large language model, was the most dovish since 2021.
Source: Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity
Activist investor Cevian Capital has said it is “not viable” to run a large international bank from Switzerland due to new strict capital proposals
Unless the position changes UBS would have “no other realistic option” but to leave the country. Cevian is Europe’s largest dedicated activist investor and holds about 1.4 per cent of UBS’s shares. It added that the government proposals, which would force the bank to have as much as $26bn in extra capital, could not be meaningfully changed through lobbying efforts. “The board has the responsibility to ensure that UBS protects its competitiveness,” Lars Förberg, Cevian’s co-founder, told the Financial Times. “Under the current proposals, it is not viable to run a big international bank from Switzerland. We therefore see no other realistic option but to leave.” He added: “The message from the Federal Council is clear: UBS is too big for Switzerland . . . I respect the Federal Council’s decision, but I do not understand it. It cannot be undone. Lobbyists cannot change that either. That effort can be spared.” Link to article: https://lnkd.in/ekU4KnUE
From yesterday's Financial Times article, “EU economy falls behind global rivals due to complacency.”
“One year on, Europe is . . . in a harder place,” Draghi told a news conference on Tuesday. “Our growth model is fading. Vulnerabilities are mounting . . . and we have been reminded, painfully, that inaction threatens not only our competitiveness but our sovereignty itself.” “Too often, excuses are made for this slowness. We say it is simply how the EU is built. Sometimes inertia is even presented as respect for the rule of law,” Draghi added. “That is complacency.” https://lnkd.in/e3facfZk
The ECB has tentatively allowed a little bit of price discovery in the bond market
The French government wakes up to discover their cost of funding is higher than L'Oréal's. Source: Hanno Lustig, FT
Key dates for France sovereign rating
Macron still needs to find a new PM who then needs to form a government who should submit its budget bill to parliament by the first Tuesday of October, which this year is October 7. Good luck... Source: French Debt Agency
This is Bloomberg's measure of bond market liquidity, which compares actual yield curves to synthetic smooth yield curves for each country
The more kinks you have in the yield curve, the higher this index and the worse is liquidity. UK off the charts, France rising rapidly... Source: Robin Brooks
German stock market valuations have hit HISTORIC levels:
DAX index forward P/E ratio relative to the Euro Stoxx 600 P/E reached the highest level since the Financial Crisis. DAX P/E is 16x, above the average of 13x over the last 10 years. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
Housing market in Spain is booming.
Home sales and prices are closing in on the record highs set before the 2008 financial crash. The strong momentum is supported by a classic supply / demand imbalance. On the supply side, only about 100,000 new apartments are built each year – roughly a third of what’s needed. On the demand side: strong economic growth, a surge in tourism, and rising migration The house price index now sits just 3.2% below its 2008 peak. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
