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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.

Despite recession concerns, economic growth showed resilience, while equities retreated in October and inflation continued its slow decline. Nuclear energy was poised to power the future of AI, while the market suggested buying "Trump" and selling "Kamala” when referring to U.S. Election bets. Here are 10 charts to review what happened in the markets during October.

Post-election relief in U.S. Treasuries brought temporary calm, but bond markets remain cautious as Trump’s fiscal policies and central bank adjustments hint at potential inflationary pressures and heightened volatility in the months ahead.

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11/11/2024

Trump’s landslide victory sparks a USD $50 million win for a French bettor, while the S&P 500 sees its biggest surge in two years! Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.

What are the short-term and medium-to-long-term implications of Donald Trump's election and a probable “sweep” Republican victory?

As the U.S. election approaches tomorrow, history shows little long-term S&P 500 impact from election outcomes, while global economic forces like SNB profits and ChatGPT’s energy demands drive market dynamics. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

In October, fixed income assets faced significant challenges, with the Global Aggregate Bond Index declining over 3%. As the U.S. elections approach, this week is poised to be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the fixed income market.

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04/11/2024

The Nasdaq Composite reached record intraday highs on Wednesday before falling back sharply on Thursday. Over the week, growth stocks generally lagged value shares. Small-caps also held up much better than large-caps. 42% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index reported their Q3 earnings over the week, including five of the Mag 7. Microsoft and Apple were the biggest losers of the week whereas Amazon and Google gained. On the macro side, the Labor Department reported “essentially unchanged” nonfarm payrolls over the month, with employers adding only 12,000 jobs—the lowest number since December 2020. It included a decline of 44,000 jobs due to the Boeing strike.

Flash note

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31/10/2024

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