The yen continues to plummet, France's debt-to-GDP gap with Germany widens further and Zoom goes boom! Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Global government bonds endured another tough week, weighed down by central banks' hesitance to swiftly normalize monetary policies, solid economic data, and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Amid these headwinds, the perception of fixed income as an unloved asset grows stronger. Consequently, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index has fallen 4.25% year-to-date, suffering its harshest start in over three decades, second only to 2022.

Stocks recorded broad losses, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of U.S. interest rates remaining “higher for longer” appeared to weigh on sentiment. Mega-cap technology shares lagged as rising rates placed a higher theoretical discount on future earnings. A Q1 revenue miss from ASML Holdings also seemed to weigh on the sector and on general optimism toward companies with AI-related earnings. Some strong economic data (e.g retail sales +0.7% vs. 0.3% expected) appeared to increase worries that the Fed would push back any interest rate cuts to the fall, if not to 2025. Conversely, downward surprises in housing market data may have furthered inflation fears by auguring continued supply tightness. As was the case last week, Fed officials expressed their concern with recent economic data.

US inflation is accelerating, federal debt is projected to double from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion by 2025, but the S&P 500 continues to show resilience. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Following unexpectedly high U.S. inflation data for March, the ECB has taken a decisive step with its latest monetary policy decisions. Indicating a readiness to initiate rate cuts sooner and potentially more aggressively than the Federal Reserve, the ECB is responding to the diverging economic paths between the Eurozone and the U.S. This strategic divergence underscores the ECB's intention to tailor its policy measures to the unique economic conditions within the Eurozone.

The major US equity benchmarks retreated for the week amid heightened fears of conflict in the Middle East and some signs of persistent inflation pressures that pushed long-term Treasury yields higher. Large-caps held up better than small-caps, with the Russell 2000 Index suffering its biggest daily decline in almost two months on Wednesday. Growth stocks fared better than value shares. Wednesday morning’s release of the US CPI data, which came in higher than expected, weighed on investors’ sentiment. Overall inflation rose 3.5% yoy, its biggest gain since September. The “supercore” inflation (services prices excl. energy and housing costs) jumped 4.8% yoy, substantially higher than expectations and its biggest increase in 10 months.

The U.S. Treasury is ramping up the issuance of Treasury bonds at an accelerating pace. Simultaneously, we are seeing gold prices rise while bond yields fall, while commodities are experiencing a resurgence. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

The US large-cap indexes pulled back from record highs, as the S&P 500 recorded its worst week since the start of the year (and the Dow the worst YTD). On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow being the worst performers. The market’s performance also narrowed again, with growth stocks faring better than value shares. Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) - the only sector to end green - while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged. VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023. Stocks moved lower following the release of the March ISM manufacturing reading on Monday, which came in well above expectations and indicated expansion—if barely—for the first time in 16 months. The Friday US jobs report showed that employers added 303,000 jobs in March, well above expectations.

Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 have been adjusting over recent weeks, a trend solidified by the latest job report, which has now pushed the anticipated timing of the first rate cut to July from June, with fewer than three cuts expected for the year. Adding a layer of caution, Federal Reserve member Kashkari has suggested that rate cuts may not be necessary if inflation doesn't continue to decrease…

The U.S. stock market had a strong start to 2024, with the S&P 500 experiencing its best beginning since 2019, rising by 10.2%. This bullish momentum, underscored by record lows in volatility, reflects a surge in investor optimism. The tech and healthcare sectors continued to perform, while adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations and a strong dollar added to the market's complexity. Each quarter, the Syz investment team takes you through the last 3 months in 10 charts.