Despite a modest rebound on Friday afternoon, all major US equity indices declined over the week. The Nasdaq underperformed and recorded its weakest weekly performance since the sharp post–Liberation Day decline in early April. The market pullback can be explained by a number of factors: growing unease surrounding artificial intelligence developments, signs of labor market softening, ongoing tariff hearings, a lack of meaningful economic data, rising concerns over private credit, and persistently hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The U.S. federal government shutdown reached the longest on record during the week, which also appeared to weigh on broader sentiment.

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The Nasdaq Composite led gains, driven by strength in mega-cap tech firms benefiting from AI-related spending. Market gains were narrow — the S&P 500 rose even though most sectors fell, and the equal-weighted index lagged by 2.7%. About two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and 83% are beating expectations. Results from the “Magnificent Seven” were mixed: Microsoft, Apple, and Meta fell post-earnings, while Amazon and Alphabet rose. NVIDIA’s shares surged, briefly pushing its market value above $5 trillion. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year trade truce, easing tensions between the two nations. The deal included U.S. tariff reductions, China suspending export controls on rare earths, and resuming purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, as expected, but signaled caution on further cuts.

Meanwhile, a record 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten profit forecasts this quarter, marking the strongest earnings season since 2021. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

Global equity markets advanced despite volatility from U.S.–China trade headlines and a spike in oil prices following sanctions on Russia’s top oil firms. In the US, Small- and mid-caps outperformed large caps, with technology and energy sectors leading gains while utilities and consumer staples lagged. The ongoing government shutdown delayed several economic reports, but September inflation data was released late. Headline inflation rose slightly to 3.0%, just below expectations, while core inflation held steady at 3.0%. S&P Global’s preliminary PMI readings showed business activity strengthening in October. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated: short-term (1–3 year) yields rose, while the 10-year yield declined.

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U.S. stocks rose for the week, recovering from the previous Friday’s steep sell-off, the S&P 500’s worst day since April. The rebound came amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions, dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, and optimism from new deals in the artificial intelligence sector. The start of Q3 earnings season further boosted sentiment, as major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all beat expectations. By Friday, 12% of S&P 500 companies had reported, with 86% exceeding earnings forecasts, according to FactSet. However, gains were partly reversed on Thursday after two regional banks revealed loan issues linked to alleged fraud, reigniting concerns about credit risks and the health of smaller lenders.

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U.S. stocks fell for the week as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns over the prolonged government shutdown weighed on sentiment. Early gains, driven by enthusiasm for AI-related companies and a major AMD-OpenAI partnership that boosted AMD shares over 20%, were erased after President Trump threatened major new tariffs on Chinese goods. Gold surged past $4,000 per ounce, reflecting heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Q3 earnings season, especially since the shutdown has halted major economic data releases. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to post its ninth straight quarter of earnings growth.

Meanwhile, markets have a history of bouncing back from US shutdowns—will this time be any different? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.