The Nasdaq led with its best week since April, supported by solid earnings, renewed AI enthusiasm, and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. labor market weakened sharply. Payrolls fell by 23,000 in July versus expectations for an 80,000 gain, while previous months were revised lower. Job openings also declined and ADP private payroll growth slowed to just 44,000. Unemployment nevertheless edged down to 4.1%. Rate-hike expectations declined: following the weak jobs report, the probability of a September Fed hike dropped to roughly 42% from 55%. U.S. business activity remained resilient. U.S. manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6, its highest since May 2022.

Market, earnings and macro participation are widening at the same time.

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The Nasdaq, the Dow, and S&P 500 Index all advanced, while the Russell 2000 Index was little changed, in a week characterized by sharp swings tied to the Fed’s policy meeting, the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, and volatility in AI-related shares. Consumer discretionary led the S&P 500 sectors—supported by a late-week rally in Amazon shares. Concerns about the sustainability of heavy AI investments continued early in the week, with many AI-related shares coming under pressure amid questions about elevated capex, circular financing, and rising competition. However, sentiment reversed sharply on Thursday after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business and issued an encouraging outlook, helping support a broad rebound in recently weak tech stocks. The Fed left the rate target range unchanged. However, three policymakers dissented, voting instead to raise rates.

AI investment is now the consensus explanation for a resilient 2026 US economy, and the scale remains striking.

From tightening oil chokepoints to mounting AI-related debt and a widening credit-market divide, energy, capital and geopolitics are telling a single story of scarcity and strain. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.

U.S. equities ended mostly lower, pressured by doubts over the payoff from heavy AI capex and a sharp jump in oil prices. The Nasdaq lagged (-2.13%) while the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 fell more modestly. Corproate earnings dominated a thin macro week, with 86 S&P 500 names reporting. Alphabet and Tesla both sold off on elevated capex and softer cash flow reinforcing the broader unease about big tech's AI spending. On the geopolitical side, stalled ceasefire efforts in the Middle East sent brent oil to $100. Energy shares benefited; travel and consumer names suffered. The spike in oil prices revived inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields up and nudging market pricing toward a possible Fed hike.

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