Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

Nvidia results are here, and they were above expectations

 

Nvidia’s Q4 revenue surged 78% to $39.3B, fuelled by strong AI-driven data centre demand. Full-year revenue reached $130.5B, up 114%. While gross margin came in at 73%, slightly down on an annual basis, the company still delivered a notable operating margin of 61%. Nvidia projects $43B in Q1 FY26 revenue, around 65% annual growth, a slowdown from the prior year’s exceptionally high rate.

Source: CNBC, App Insights


Chart #2 — 

It's the liquidity, stupid...

Bitcoin $BTC is finally catching up with the drop of liquidity – with a 10-week lag. The good news is that Global M2 is accelerating again, but due to the lag risk assets should resume uptrend later –all other things being equal of course.

Source: Bloomberg, Joe Consorti


Chart #3 — 

The Fed’s favourite recession indicator flashes red

 

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped below the 3-month note, creating an inverted yield curve, an event with a strong track record of predicting economic downturns. While there’s no guarantee of a recession this time, investors worry that ambitious growth targets may not be met. Historically, inversions have been reliable but not infallible signals; the previous one in October 2022 has yet to coincide with an official recession.

Source: CNBC


Chart #4 — 

2025 rate cut odds

Just two weeks ago, the market was expecting a single rate cut for 2025. Now, it anticipates more than two, highlighting a swift pivot in monetary policy expectations. The shift suggests traders see mounting evidence that an easing cycle could be on the horizon.

Source: zerohedge


Chart #5 — 

Cash is trash, according to US equity funds

Cash allocation of US equity funds has declined to just ~1.5%, the lowest on RECORD. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has never been greater, creating downside risk.

Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs


Chart #6 —

Germany political situation summarised in one chart

A CDU/CSU and SPD coalition holds a clear majority with 328 out of 630 seats. However, fringe parties AfD and Linke have a blocking minority of 216 seats, making it harder to revise the debt brake. Still, defence spending can be arranged through European mechanisms, bypassing the German debt brake, and the Left Party is likely to support changes for infrastructure investment in Germany.

Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs

 


Chart #7 — 

Uranium reserves by country

A handful of countries dominate the uranium market: Australia tops the list with over 1.2 million tonnes, while Kazakhstan, Canada, and Russia also boast significant deposits. As nations seek low-carbon power, competition for these key reserves could heat up.

Source: Rick Rule Rhetoric


Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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