UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%.
That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008. Source: Leadlag report, Michel Gayed
Trump’s warship request global responses
When Trump asked the world to send warships, here’s what each country said: France officially rejected, China gave no response and called it a “sovereign right,” the United Kingdom said it was “discussing options with allies” with no commitment, Japan remained silent despite 70% of its Middle East oil passing through Hormuz, South Korea gave no confirmation, Germany and Norway rejected convoy support, Qatar stopped gas production and declared force majeure, the UAE noted Gulf states tried to stop the war, and Iran continued attacking ships, laying mines, and blocking the strait. Ten countries. Zero warships. Source: Whale.Guru, @Whale_Guru
The Global Equity market is valued at $154 trillion as of 2025 and here's the detailed breakdown.
44% of the global share is owned by USA, while the rest of the world combined holds 56%. China and the European Union (EU) hold similar stakes at about 9.6% each. India is the third largest country, representing 6.9% of the global equity markets, followed by Japan at 4.9%. A 10-year comparison (2015 vs 2025): Interestingly, China, EU, Hong Kong, Japan and UK have each seen a decline from their share in 2015. On the other hand, India and USA have both witnessed an increase in their share. Source: Stocks World @anandchokshi19
China and Iran a tangled geopolitical web
In 2017, China bought 26% of Iran's oil. Last year? 90%. Every other buyer EU, India, Japan, Korea has been sanctioned out. So when Trump asks China to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he’s asking the one country keeping Iran financially alive to help militarily contain it. China funds Iran's war chest, while Iran mines China’s oil supply. This is one of the most tangled relationships in geopolitics, and Beijing has to choose very carefully. Source: Giacomo Prandelli
Big week ahead for centralbanks
Source: Bloomberg
MAX PRESSURE
Donald Trump warned NATO allies that the alliance could face a “very bad” future if they refuse to help the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed after the US–Israel war began two weeks earlier. The strait is crucial for global energy, carrying about 20% of the world’s oil, and oil prices have surged to about $106 per barrel since the conflict started. Trump is urging European allies and China—who rely heavily on Gulf oil—to contribute military support such as minesweepers and special forces to secure the waterway and counter Iranian drones and mines. He criticized allies, particularly the UK, for responding slowly and questioned whether NATO partners would support the US as the US has supported them (e.g., Ukraine). Trump also suggested he might delay an upcoming summit with China’s President Xi Jinping if Beijing does not help reopen the strait. The US claims it has severely weakened Iran’s military, but Iran can still disrupt shipping using mines and drones. Trump warned the US could launch further strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if tensions escalate. Bottom line: Trump is pressuring NATO allies and China to join US efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict, warning that their response could affect NATO’s future and hinting at further military escalation. Source: FT, CNBC
The next big question: What is happening in the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
Since the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz has been the focal point, as it accounts for ~20 million barrels of daily oil supply. On Thursday, Iran's Fars News Agency said Houthis in Yemen and other “resistance groups” may soon join the war against the US and Israel, per WSJ. Not too long ago, Yemen's Houthis, who are backed by Iran, were striking ships in the Red Sea, resulting in a major drop in shipping activity. Currently, ~12% of global seaborne oil passes through Bab al-Mandab, making it the world’s 4th-largest shipping chokepoint. If this passage is closed, another ~6 million barrels of daily oil supply would be halted. Total offline capacity between the two Straits would near 25 million barrels per day, or ~25% of global supply. We have another pivotal week ahead. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, EIA
Why stocks outperform bonds and cash
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
