South Korea's import costs are surging at a pace not seen in nearly 30 years.
Import prices jumped +16.1% MoM and +18.4% YoY in March, the largest monthly spike since January 1998. This comes as Dubai crude oil prices nearly doubled in a month, to an average of $128.52 a barrel, while the Korean won weakened -2.6% against the US Dollar over the same period. As a result, raw material import prices, including crude and other mining products, rose more than +40% MoM, with oil-related products such as naphtha and jet fuel amplifying cost pressures for manufacturers. Higher import costs will filter through to consumer prices over time, eroding household purchasing power and dragging on domestic demand and economic growth. Source: Global Markets Investor
Over $6.6 TRILLION was added to the US stock market in just 12 trading days.
The S&P 500 is up 11%, adding $6.4 trillion to its market cap. The Nasdaq is up 15%, adding $5 trillion. The Russell 2000 is up 13%, adding $389 billion. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today, in the middle of an active war. Source: Bull Theory
The IMF's growth forecasts are out.
Qatar seems to be the worst hit from the Middle East War, with recovery set for 2027. Source: Statista
S&P 500 $SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting.
What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
A legend just passes away.
Mark Mobius put emerging markets on investors' radar with on-the-ground insights. I had the privilege to meet him. He was a true gentleman and a source of inspiration for generations of investors.
China’s economy gathered steam in the first quarter
Robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption, though an energy shock stemming from the Iran war threatens to sap global demand and undercut that momentum. ➡️ Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. ➡️ Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier. ➡️ China’s retail sales grew 1.7% in March from a year earlier. Industrial output expanded 5.7%. ➡️ The urban survey-based unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, picking up from 5.3% in February. In the first quarter, China’s exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI. That said, that growth has stalled as the Middle East conflict rages on. As the world’s largest oil importer and a heavily export-reliant economy, China is vulnerable to an oil shock that’s already slowing trade, pushing up factory costs, and darkening the outlook for the rest of the year. Source: CNBC
Oil flows from the Gulf
"Estimated oil flows from the Gulf (including pipeline redirections) increased to 10.4mb/d or 45% of normal on higher Yanbu exports as Saudi East-West pipeline full pumping capacity was restored within 4 days after the damage." Source: Goldman, zerohedge
HUGE: The US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of oil per day last week amid the Iran War.
Source: Bloomberg
