Syz the moment

As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision The dot plot showed that 16 of 18 participants expect at least one additional hike this year. However, this does NOT appear to be the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. Policymakers do not project further increases in the federal funds rate over the following years. A unanimous rate-hike decision, and large majority also signaling at least one more hike in 2026 hides the reality that 2027 outlooks are massively divided with four members signaling a 'policy error' implicitly with 3 seeing 2 cuts and 1 seeing 4 cuts... The statement and dots were more hawkish than expected overall as The Fed took away the projected median cut next year. October odds initially declined but then jumped (right before Midterms?) to 57% while December odds of a hike jumped to 75%... While noisy, 2027 rate-hike expectations rose to around 40bps (2026 expectations are now for another 30bps)... 👉 Warsh explained that a resilient labour market, persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions had shifted the committee in favour of a hike. 👉He described the hike as removing a degree of accommodation. In practice, the Fed may be reversing the three rate cuts delivered in 2025—leaving room for UP TO TWO additional hikes. Warsh also suggested that intense competition for capital, particularly from technology hyperscalers, may be contributing to higher US bond yields. 🔴 Conclusion: Yesterday’s hike—and potentially another 25-basis-point increase this year—gives the Fed time to see whether oil prices retreat. A third hike could follow in early 2027 if necessary, fully reversing last year’s easing cycle. Source image: zerohedge

The BIST 100 has fallen roughly 10–11%, including a 6% drop that triggered a market-wide circuit breaker. The key concern is no longer valuation—it is whether investors can get their money out. Pusula Portföy disclosed delays in meeting some fund redemptions. When withdrawals rise, managers need cash and often sell their most liquid holdings—not necessarily their weakest ones. That is how otherwise healthy stocks get dragged into the selloff. New fund regulations, 37% domestic interest rates and expensive oil are adding pressure. Meanwhile, a hawkish Fed could strengthen the dollar and reduce demand for Turkish assets. This is not yet a full currency crisis: the lira has remained far more stable than equities. But the risk is clear. Once a market starts pricing exit risk, fundamentals become secondary. The turning point will come when redemptions are met and forced selling finally ends. Source: EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm

Turkey's BIST 100 index crashed 6% yesterday, putting it on track for its worst 2-day drop since March 2025. A major Turkish asset manager failed to meet investor redemption requests, sparking fears of a broader liquidity crisis across the country's entire fund industry. Nearly every stock in the index fell yesterday. The index has now crashed more than 11% in just the last 6 days.

President Trump says the Fed should have cut interest rates to 1% or lower and says the US is “carrying” countries with which it runs trade deficits.

Source: Barchart

Shanghai crude futures surged to a record 929.4 yuan per barrel, their highest level since the contract launched in 2018. The catalyst? A major Middle East pipeline shutdown has tightened supplies, forcing Chinese refiners to compete aggressively for replacement cargoes. Oman and Murban crude are now both trading above $126 per barrel. But the most important signal is not simply the price surge. It is where the move started. Shanghai is leading, not following, Brent and WTI. When China’s domestic benchmark moves first, its refiners become the marginal buyers setting the price for the next available barrel. The message is clear: global oil-price discovery may be shifting east. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg

GDP: 2.3% from 2.2% PCE inflation: 3.7% from 3.6% Core PCE: 3.4% from 3.3% Unemployment: 4.1% from 4.3% Source: Wall St Engine

Restated, the economy is booming. Source: Jim Bianco