SPX is pushing slightly above the downtrend, testing the 21-day MA.
A close above could turn this into a squeeze setup, but 6700 (futures) remains the key resistance to watch. More here. Source: TME
Markets have historically tended to bottom well ahead of broader spillover effects.
As Andreas Steno Larsen notes, “markets typically bottom when the rate of change improves.” Source: TME
SPX has tracked oil almost tick-for-tick since the Iran war began. Now it’s starting to decouple.
Do you trust forward-looking equities, or oil stuck at extremes? Source: TME
Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic?
Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the $1.8tn market. The stock fell 1.4% to $8.45, slipping below its previous low from late 2022. It is now down 68% from its all-time high. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of the global economy: Saudi Arabia is the largest source of crude oil transiting the Strait at 38%, followed by Iraq at 22% and the UAE at 14%.
Iran, Kuwait, and Qatar follow at 11%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. On the destination side, China receives the largest portion at 37%, followed by India at 14%, Other Asia and Oceania at 16%, South Korea at 12%, and Japan at 12%. This means ~75% of all crude oil passing through the Strait flows to Asia, making the region overwhelmingly the most exposed to the current disruption. Saudi Arabia and Iraq alone represent 60% of all crude transiting the chokepoint, meaning any prolonged closure disproportionately impacts their export revenues and Asian buyers simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy flows. Source: Global Markets Investor
Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.”
Source: Carl Quintanilla
New paper from Hendrik Bessembinder just analyzed 100 years of stock market data.
And it's shocking. Out of nearly 30,000 stocks analyzed... Just 30 companies generated ~44% of all wealth created. Source: Oktay Kavrak, CFA @OKavrak
The new deadline from the US President: 8PM ET on Tuesday for a deal before "“Every bridge in Iran will be decimated" by 12 midnight ET.
Source: David Ingles
