Reminder water depths are critical and why there are only narrow shipping lanes thru Strait of Hormuz for fully laden tankers.
There is no way to avoid the the narrow gap for loaded tankers. Source: Dan Tsubouchi
This chart says it all: US tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x Forward P/E in weeks.
Tech valuations are now LOWER than they were when ChatGPT was announced. As the Iran War drives markets lower, AI is only getting bigger. A buying opportunity? Source: Apollo, The Kobeissi Letter
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
Source: Alex Christoforou
The idea of gold as a global “VIX hedge” doesn’t hold up. During the latest volatility spike, it moved in the opposite direction.
Source: The Market Ear
The S&P 500 was up for the seventh day in a row today - its longest win streak since Oct 2025...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The war with Iran has done further damage to the global dollar system.
The demise of the dollar’s dominance won’t be an overnight phenomenon, but the conflict in the Middle East is one more milestone along the way. That can be seen in central bank holdings of gold exceeding valuation-adjusted dollar reserves for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
