A story from 2007.
Source: Jon Erlichman
BREAKING: US new home sales plummeted -11.3% month-over-month to 619,000 in May, well below the estimated -0.2% decrease.
This was the largest decline since September 2022 when new home sales fell by ~14%. Year-over-year sales dropped by a whopping 16.5%, the most since February 2023. This also follows the Pending Home Sales decline to their lowest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, the supply of homes available for sale rose to 481,000, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US housing market is slowing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Will Biden run for President after yesterday's night debate???
It seems that Democrats will look urgently for a new nominee. Indeed, Many of the Democratic Party’s top fundraisers are privately sounding the alarm after President Joe Biden’s disappointing debate performance Thursday against Republican former President Donald Trump. “Disaster,” said a Biden donor who plans to attend a fundraiser with the president on Saturday in the Hamptons. “This is terrible. Worse than I thought was possible. Everyone I’m speaking with thinks Biden should drop out,” said the person, who was granted anonymity in order to recount private conversations. CNBC began hearing from worried Democratic campaign donors and fundraisers less than 20 minutes into the 90-minute debate hosted by CNN. “Game over,” said a longtime Democratic campaign advisor, who has been raising money for congressional leaders for over a decade and helped raise money for Biden’s 2020 White House bid. https://lnkd.in/eWanGba8
Is Nvidia suffering from SUCCESS?
Apparently a bunch of senior NVIDIA engineers are retiring early after they became multi-millionaires off of their $NVDA stock options. What a time! Source: Jesse Cohen
American excess savings reached $2.1 trillion in 2021, but they ran dry months ago.
The pandemic savings cushions that helped Americans weather high prices in recent years have worn through, contributing to a loss of consumer firepower that’s rippling through the economy. Delinquencies are rising. Executives are flagging caution among shoppers in recent earnings calls, and retail sales barely increased in May after falling the month prior. Economists forecast solid inflation-adjusted consumer spending in data out Friday, helped by lower gasoline prices, but that would follow an outright decline in April. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
AI is eating software development
Source: FRED, GBR LLC on X
% Increase over the last 5 years...
US Money Supply (M2): +42% Average US New Home Price: +44% "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman Source: Charlie Bilello
Electricity consumption has skyrocketed, and this is just the beginning.
As highlighted by Otavio (Tavi) Costa, the surge in electric cars, electric heating, and new AI advancements is dramatically increasing our electricity needs. Among the questions raised? 1) Is the global economy prepared for these changes? 2) Could AI be inflationary in the short run and deflationary in the long run? The extensive infrastructure necessary to harness AI requires hardware expansion, while commodities (particularly metals) remain historically constrained. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
