Oil just crashed below $90 on reports that Europe may release its diesel and crude oil reserves.
Source: Bull Theory
NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: 46% chance Marine Le Pen wins the next French Presidential election
Source: Kalshi Politics
Anthropic at $2 trillion: outrageous or a bet on extraordinary growth? Its reportedly leaked IPO prospectus tells two stories.
Its reportedly leaked IPO prospectus tells two stories. First, the spending: an $8 billion operating loss in 2025 and more than $500 billion in future commitments, reportedly 80% non-cancelable. Then, the growth: ▪️ 2025 revenue: $4.6 billion ▪️ July 2026 annualized run rate: $65 billion ▪️ 2028 revenue forecast: $200 billion At a $2 trillion valuation, that means: 435x 2025 sales 31x July’s annualized run rate 10x projected 2028 sales But a run rate isn’t annual revenue. And a forecast isn’t a result. Was July repeatable or boosted by unusually large deals? Two customers reportedly generated a quarter of 2025 revenue, without long-term commitments. The valuation looks more digestible with every projection. The challenge is turning those projections into revenue. Source: Dan Runkevicius
SEPTEMBER U.S. JOBS REPORT CAME IN FAR WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
• Nonfarm Payrolls +29K vs Est. +90K • Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs Est. 4.1% • Avg. Hourly Earnings 3.0% vs. Est. 3.1% Given the massive undershoot in the NFP, rate hike probabilities have completely flipped. There is now a 71% chance of no hikes in October. One week ago, it was 35%. Nasdaq futures, Gold & Bitcoin spiked on the news. Source: coinbureau,
Here's a look at the cumulative Bitcoin ETF flows since their peak on October 10th.
We're positive YTD and flows still coming into the ETFs but were still about $5 bln away from erasing the cumulative outflow hole. Source: James Seyffart
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for over 6 years (74 months), by far the longest in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP drops to 3.7%, from 5.0% on September 25
Source: zerohedge
"PHYSICAL AI CAN BECOME A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER OF MEMORY AND STORAGE DEMAND BY THE END OF THIS DECADE."
MICRON $MU Source: TrendSpider
