U.S. Mineral Import Reliance Hits New Highs
The latest USGS mineral commodities report shows the U.S. is becoming increasingly dependent on foreign sources for critical raw materials, raising risks for both national security and industry. Import reliance rose across nearly all non-fuel minerals, with the U.S. now 100% dependent on imports for 16 minerals and more than 50% reliant on imports for 54 of the 90 tracked commodities, both up from last year. This trend underscores the growing urgency to strengthen domestic supply chains as geopolitical and trade risks make foreign dependence more vulnerable. Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl
Microsoft, $MSFT, has erased all of its outperformance vs. the S&P 500 since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.
The stock is now -27% below its highs, the largest drawdown in over a decade outside of 2022. It also ERASED over 2 years of gains. The MSFT/SPX ratio is down to its lowest since November 2022 and well below the 5-year average. One of the biggest AI investors is now one of the WORST-performing mega-cap stocks. CapEx is not fancy anymore. Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor
The "Bitcoin is dead" narrative just jumped the shark
Each cycle, Bitcoin is declared “dead,” but this ignores a deeper structural shift in monetary sovereignty. Behind the negative headlines, fundamentals are advancing: major U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act), rapid institutional adoption through asset tokenization, and crowded bearish positioning near the 200-week SMA. The transition from speculative asset to institutional financial infrastructure is painful but ongoing when the bear case relies on fear narratives, it often signals that the structural shift is already underway.
As shown on the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and bitcoin look like twins...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin is experiencing severe sell-off pressure, with one of the worst days of the decade similar to past crisis moments (COVID crash, Terra Luna, FTX).
BTC is extremely oversold: daily RSI hit 16 and weekly RSI fell below 30 for only the 4th time ever. Historically, buying at these levels and holding for one year has delivered strong returns (+112% in 2015, +136% in 2019, +26% in 2022). Source: Trendspider
Big Tech is spending massively in AI as they all want to win the "AI war".
The combined 2026 capex for the Mag 7 now totals $655 BILLION. To put things in perspective, the German government special infrastructure fund is totalling €500 billion OVER 12 YEARS... ‼️ Source: The AI Investor
The End of the Buyback Era?
Mega-cap tech in the S&P 500 is undergoing a major shift. Before: buybacks exceeded CapEx, supporting valuation multiples. Now: CapEx exceeds buybacks, driven by the AI arms race.
Shares of automaker Stellantis plunged 23% in European trading on Friday
The company said it expects to take a 22-billion-euro ($26 billion) hit from a business reset and hinted at a pull-back from its electrification push. After Ford and General Motors announced large write-downs linked to their EV strategy, today Stellantis has announced it will take ~€22 billion ($26 billion) in impairments as it scales back its EV plans. With a brutal admission by the CEO ⬇️ Source: Javier Blas
