Retail investors and Quants dominate US stocks trading
Source: Empirical research, RBC
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030.
https://lnkd.in/eMkGJKyi Source: Jack Farley @JackFarley96, FT
This is probably why the markets love Alphabet $GOOGL - at least for now.
Over the last 12 months, Alphabet generated $151.4B in operating cash flow, enough to: A) Spend $77.8B on capex B) Repay $19.8B of debt C) Buy back $59.5B of stock and pay $10B in dividends This is elite cash-machine territory. With much quality / over-indebtedness than with some of the other AI names Source: Gainify @gainify_io
Breakout Alert 🚨: Gold
Source: Barchart
The Russell Micro-cap Index includes the smallest 1000 securities in the Russell2000 Index, plus the next 1000 smallest eligible securities by market cap.
This index is on pace to finish November at its highest monthly close in its entire history. Risk appetite or Risk aversion? Source: J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX
🚨 Major investors are DUMPING Japanese government bonds:
The Bank of Japan, domestic banks, insurers, and others have net sold -¥10.7 TRILLION in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in September, the most EVER. Demand for Japanese debt is falling; no wonder yields are rising. Source: Global Market Investors, Bloomberg
It now looks as if the race between Microsoft and Google for the best AI strategy has been decided
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
JPMorgan has taken a surprising leap back into Bitcoin – this time with a leveraged structured note tied directly to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the world’s largest BTC ETF.
The filing, made this week with U.S. regulators, arrives just days after the bank criticized MicroStrategy, faced boycott calls over alleged crypto debanking, and pushed MSCI to consider excluding Bitcoin-heavy companies from major indexes. Now, the same institution is rolling out a product built to ride Bitcoin’s next major cycle. JPMorgan Unveils IBIT-Linked Note Built Around the Halving Cycle The structured note mirrors Bitcoin’s well-known four-year pattern: weakness two years after a halving, followed by renewed strength heading into the next one. With the last halving in 2024, JPMorgan is effectively positioning investors for a potential dip in 2026 and a surge in 2028. According to the filing, if IBIT hits or exceeds a preset price by December 2026, the bank will call the note and pay a minimum 16% return. But if IBIT stays below that level, the note extends to 2028 and the payoff becomes far more aggressive. Investors would earn 1.5x whatever gains IBIT delivers by the end of that year, with no cap on upside. High Rewards, High Risk The note also includes partial downside protection. Investors recover their principal in 2028 as long as IBIT doesn’t fall more than 30%. But once that threshold breaks, losses mirror the decline. JPMorgan warns that holders could lose over 40%, or even their entire investment, if Bitcoin collapses during the period. A Sharp Reversal in Tone From JPMorgan The launch comes amid a rapid shift in messaging from the bank. JPMorgan now says crypto is evolving into a “tradable macro asset class” driven by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation. Source: Trading View, Decrypt
