S&P is considering rule changes that would let newly public companies join its indexes faster with Nasdaq weighing a similar move.
The shift could pull index demand forward for mega IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic & Databricks. Current requirements for S&P 500 inclusion include the following, including positive GAAP earnings for the last 4 quarters AND the most recent quarter must also be positive, something SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all definitely do not have currently. Source: Negligible Capital, Bloomberg Intelligence
Anthropic Triples Revenue Forecast in Four Years
Source: Hedgeye
⚠️ CHINA JUST MADE IT ILLEGAL TO FIRE EMPLOYEES AND REPLACE THEM WITH AI.
China’s courts have ruled that companies cannot fire or penalize employees simply because AI can replace their work. In two cases, employers who cut pay or terminated workers due to AI adoption were found to have acted illegally. The courts stated AI adoption is a voluntary business choice, so companies must retrain, reassign, or support workers instead of shifting the burden onto them. This contrasts with global trends, where over 1.5 million jobs have been cut since 2020, many due to AI. Major firms like Amazon, Block, and Meta have reduced staff to fund AI investments. Studies warn AI could replace significant portions of the workforce, reducing consumer spending. Economists highlight a risk: widespread layoffs shrink demand, creating a self-destructive cycle where productivity rises but consumers lack income. China’s approach aims to prevent this by protecting workers’ earnings and sustaining economic demand.
The market is already pulling forward the next wave of buyers.
Source: TME
SPX spent nearly two weeks consolidating above the major breakout level and is now pushing higher again.
Frustration is building as dip buyers never really got a chance to step in. Source: TME
Apple issued a better-than-expected revenue forecast for the current period after beating on sales and earnings in the fiscal second quarter.
The stock rose about 3% in extended trading. Sales for iPhones missed estimates for the second time in three quarters, the only significant number that came up short of expectations in Thursday’s report. Revenue climbed 17% from $95.4 billion a year earlier, Apple said. It was the first time the company faced Wall Street since the announcement last week that Tim Cook will be stepping down as CEO after 15 years on the job. Apple said on the earnings call that revenue in the June quarter will increase between 14% and 17% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting growth of 9.5% to $103 billion, according to LSEG. The company’s board authorized an additional $100 billion in stock repurchases and declared a cash dividend of 27 cents per share, up 4%. Sales of iPhones rose 22% in the quarter from a year earlier. Like other consumer electronics companies and device makers, Apple faces supply chain constraints, largely due to the global memory shortage that’s being driven by soaring artificial intelligence demand. Meta and Microsoft said Wednesday that higher memory prices contributed to their increased capital expenditures forecasts for the year. Cook said on the earnings call that the iPhone 17 is now the “most popular lineup in our history” and noted that overall revenue beat guidance “despite supply constraints.” CFO Kevan Parekh said the company faced supply constraints on iPhones and Macs. $AAPL Apple Q2 FY26 (March quarter): 📱 Products +17% Y/Y to $80.2B. 💳 Services +16% Y/Y to $31.0B. • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $111.2B ($1.6B beat). • Operating margin 32% (+1pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.01 ($0.07 beat). APPLE $AAPL GUIDE June Quarter Guide: 🔹 Revenue: Expected to grow +14% to +17% YoY (Est. +9.1%) 🟢 - “best view of constrained supply” 🔹 Services: Expected to grow YoY at a rate similar to March quarter, excluding FX tailwinds 🔹 Gross Margin: 47.5%-48.5% Other Notes: 🔹 iPad faces a difficult compare from the A16-powered iPad launch in the prior year 🔹 March quarter FX was a 2.5-point tailwind to total company growth, with services slightly more favorable Commentary: 🔸 “We’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today.” Source: WOLF, CNBC
WHAT A SHORT SQUEEZE...
On April 1st, the US-Iran war was in full swing, oil was at $115, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, recession fears were everywhere, and hedge funds were at their most bearish positioning in years. Every major bank was warning of a market crash. Then the ceasefire hit. Oil crashed 22% and Every hedge fund that was short had to cover immediately. Every investor sitting in cash had to chase the rally. The result: - Nasdaq: +16% in April, New all time high. - S&P 500: +11% in April, New all time high. - Russell 2000: +12% in April, New all time high. - Dow Jones: +7% in April. Three major indexes hitting all time highs in the same month while an active war was happening is something that has almost never occurred in market history. Source: Bull Theory
"We are going to need a bigger boat..." ($NVDA...)
The biggest US tech firms now plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, primarily on AI data center equipment. Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800B / $1.1 trillion in 2026 / 2027 (versus $765B / $950B) prior. That means we will also to need a lot of energy and raw materials for that !!! Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley
