Meanwhile... Power is shifting in Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. Here's why you should pay attention.
Vietnam’s new president, To Lam, has consolidated both party and state leadership — a first in decades. This move signals faster decision-making, deeper reforms, and a more centralized vision for growth. What’s happening: • Stronger leadership control • Aggressive anti-corruption drive • Government restructuring at scale (150,000 bureaucratic jobs cut; 8 ministries abolished) • Private sector pushed to the forefront. 10%+ GDP growth targeted. And he’s just getting started. Why it matters: Vietnam is a critical node in global supply chains and a key alternative to China. But with rising reliance on the US and external shocks (energy, geopolitics), the stakes are higher than ever. The big question: Can centralized power accelerate growth — without losing internal consensus? This is not the Vietnam of 10 years ago. This is a nation that has found its footing — and is now running. Vietnam is entering a defining chapter. Source: FT
Last year’s price drop of -18.9% was way bigger than this selloff’s -9.1% max drawdown, but this year’s valuation pullback (-18.4%) is almost the same as what we’ve seen last year (-19.5%)
Source: Daily Chartbook
Iran War Sees Lowest U.S. Approval Rating Ever
Source: Voronoi
Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz
An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. Source: ChrisO_wiki
US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026.
Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” Source: Carl Quintanilla
Major central banks have withdrawn a combined 711.5 tonnes of gold reserves from the New York Fed over the past 15 years.
This total is based on publicly reported repatriation by Venezuela (160t), the Netherlands (122.5t), Germany (~300t from the US portion), and France (129t). The Bank of France recently completed its move, replacing its final 129 tonnes of US-held gold to achieve 100% domestic storage in Paris. Rather than physically shipping the bullion, BdF sold its older US bars and purchased modern standard gold in Europe between July 2025 and January 2026, generating a ~€13B ($15B) capital gain. Source: MINING.COM
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
*The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1967, establishes clear procedures for presidential succession and for temporarily transferring power to the Vice President when the President is unable to discharge the duties of the office, either voluntarily (Section 3) or involuntarily via the Vice President and Cabinet (Section 4). Source: *Walter Bloomberg
The fastest oil crash since COVID just happened.
$21 gone. In hours. Here’s what the market is pricing in right now: → Hormuz reopening. Supply returns. → Strategic reserves stop draining. Pressure eases. → Saudi premium collapses. Asian refiners breathe. → LNG reroutes. Freight costs drop. Every trade that worked during the war just flipped overnight. But let’s keep in mind the full story: - The “ceasefire” is 2 weeks old. Not a peace deal. - Hormuz has real technical limitations. It doesn’t reopen like a faucet. - 11 million barrels/day of infrastructure is damaged. - Qatar LNG takes years to rebuild. Peace is harder to price than war. War gives you a narrative. Peace gives you uncertainty. The most volatile oil trade in a generation just entered its most dangerous phase — and most traders are celebrating. That’s usually when you should be careful. What’s your read? Are you buying the dip or watching from the sidelines? Source: CNBC, Jack Pradelli
