The global economy is currently benefiting from massive tariff front-running, as evidenced by the surge in imports to the US.
This has temporarily propped up production in places like Europe, Canada, and China. Will the floor fall out this week? Source: BCA, Peter Berezin on X
The World’s Top 10 Largest Trade Deficits by Country
Source: Voronoi
Since Trump’s second term began, the US $SPY is trailing Germany $EWG by more than 19 percentage points and China $MCHI by more than 24 percentage points.
A steep hill to climb already for those keeping score. Source: Bespoke @bespokeinvest
The Mag Seven is off to a historically rough start in 2025:
$META: -2.38% $MSFT: -11.26% $AAPL: -12.74% $AMZN: -13.40% $GOOG: -18.55% $NVDA: -19.82% $TSLA: -33.41% Source: Trend Spider
Goldman Sachs raises U.S. Recession odds to 35%
Source: Barchart
European tech
Source: The Economist
“‘The dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power over the last century’ is the most misleading claim in all of finance,” says Riholtz in his new book.
As long as spend or you invest (instead of sitting on cash), you should be ok. Source: Eric Balchunas on X
In Trump's first term, there was no discernible rise in inflation or drag on growth. Why?
👉 The answer lies in what economists call "currency offset." The dollar moved up by almost the exact amount as the tariffs did. After-tariff USD import prices didn't move. ➡️ Could we see something similar during Trump 2nd term? As mentioned by Lawrence McDonald on X, the context is different this time: Tariffs and inflation during Trump's first term - were after a long period of - a) global austerity, b) secular stagnation and c) Brexit's impact on the global economy. Tariffs and Inflation during Trump's 2nd term are taking place after a $16T fiscal and monetary overdosing... Source. Lawrence McDonald on X, Stephen Miran
