Syz the moment

Bitcoin has consolidated 36% since the October highs, digesting gains in a healthy and structured way. 🔺 Over the past 8 weeks, price action formed a triangle consolidation, now breaking out to the upside 📉 The move successfully tested the major swing support zone at 74’545 – 82’531 📐 Price traded back to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a level often seen in strong continuation trends 🔍 What matters next: ➡️ A weekly close above 96’000 would significantly strengthen the bullish scenario and confirm renewed upside momentum. As always, patience and confirmation remain key at these levels. Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. housing market is showing a sharp revival, driven by a 28.5% surge in mortgage activity last week. Triggered in part by President Trump’s plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds, the 30-year fixed rate briefly dipped below 6%, fueling demand. Refinances jumped 40% week-over-week (up 128% vs. last year), while total applications soared as long-idle borrowers finally acted. Economists note this reflects pent-up demand rather than just temporary post-holiday noise, signaling a potential broader market rebound. Is the sub 6% era back for good, or is this a temporary window? Source: CNBC

The U.S. is executing a unique energy “double-play,” exporting massive amounts of light, sweet shale crude while still importing heavy, sour oil to match its legacy refinery infrastructure. This paradox being both a top exporter and importer makes the country the central hinge of the global oil market. Far from a weakness, this interdependence gives the U.S. leverage, allowing it to balance supply and influence prices worldwide as we head into 2026. Source: Jack Prandelli

Deutsche Bank: "Notably, while investor sentiment has risen meaningfully over the last 6 weeks, positioning in our reading has not yet followed, with discretionary investors are still holding cautiously near neutral (0.09sd, 51st percentile). Systematic strategy positioning though is higher (0.71sd, 82nd percentile)." Source: DB, TME

As Iran’s currency collapses, Bitcoin is shifting from a theoretical hedge to a practical necessity. Hyperinflation in the rial is pushing citizens toward BTC as a store of value, while sanctions have made crypto an effective alternative to the traditional banking system. At the same time, Iran’s extremely cheap energy makes Bitcoin mining highly profitable, sustaining local supply that feeds sanction-bypassing channels. The combination of fiat collapse, sanctions, and energy arbitrage is driving a sharp surge in Bitcoin adoption and pricing relative to the rial. Source: Mario Nawfal

The headline CPI print rose 0.3% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp) driving prices up 2.7% on a YoY basis (vs +2.7% YoY exp). Many expected a December pickup due to the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November. So the headline number is basically below most of “Whisper” numbers. Source: Charlie Bilello

Source: Barchart

Claims that the Fed is “losing independence” are being reframed by James E. Thorne as misleading. According to this view, Chair Powell publicly suggested the DOJ was threatening a criminal indictment over his testimony on costly Fed building renovations—despite the DOJ never using that term. The U.S. Attorney’s Office had repeatedly sought clarification on cost overruns and testimony accuracy, but those requests were ignored until grand jury subpoenas were issued, after which Powell framed the situation as retaliation. Monetary policy independence remains intact, but it does not imply immunity from fiscal or legal oversight. Invoking “central bank independence” in this context is seen as an attempt to shield the Fed from accountability rather than a genuine threat to rate-setting autonomy. Source: Bloomberg, James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy