Syz the moment

Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg's CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue dropped 49% by Q4 2025. Subscribers collapsed from 5 million to under 3 million. The company fired 67% of its staff in two rounds last year and shut down all US and Canada offices. AI does the same thing instantly for free and explains the concept behind it. It went From $14.7 billion marketcap to $114 million in 39 months. The first company to be officially killed by AI. Source: Bull Theory

AI demand for silver is still small, likely only a low single-digit % of total demand. But it’s the fastest-growing piece, with AI servers using significantly more silver than traditional hardware. And importantly, cost isn’t a constraint. Silver is a tiny part of system spend, making AI a strong marginal buyer. As shown on the hashtag#chart below, the SOX vs silver gap is huge. Is chasing silver upside convexity instead of SOX at 60x P/E a more attractive bet? Source: TME

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in a split 6–3 decision, with three members pushing for a hike to 1% as Middle East tensions raise upside inflation risks. The bank sharply revised its 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%) while cutting growth expectations to 0.5% (from 1%). Markets are now pricing in 15bps of tightening by June, the yen is strengthening toward 159, and the Nikkei 225 is down around 1%, as higher oil prices threaten profits and household incomes. Source: Joumanna Nasr Bercetche (@JoumannaTV)

Wow. OpenAI not only missed their 2025 revenue target, but they also missed their goal of reaching 1B weekly active users according to WSJ CFO Sarah Friar also reportedly told company leaders that she’s worried the company won’t be able to meet their spending commitments if revenue doesn’t grow faster. “OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn't announced that milestone, unnerving some investors. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google's Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI's market share, the people said. The company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to people familiar with those figures.” Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital, WSJ, B,oomberg

Source: Barchart

The AI race isn't being won in headlines. It's being won in research budgets. Source: Rand Group

Our EPS forecasts this year and next are close to the top-down strategist consensus. Risks to our forecasts are two-sided, but AI skews those risks to the upside. Source: Neil Sethi

Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows the index dropped to 86.79 in Q4 2025, down from 88.85 in the previous quarter. The index has now declined steadily from its peak of 112.99 in September 2021 marking a 21.5% correction in China’s housing market. The latest reading is also the lowest level since records began in 2005 signaling continued weakness across the property sector. Real estate has been the primary repository of life savings for hundreds of millions of Chinese households. Yet roughly 85 percent of the price gains that underpinned that wealth creation have evaporated since 2021. Sales and prices continue to slide, while an estimate of 80 Million unsold or vacant homes clog the market and many of the country’s largest private developers have defaulted on debts Source: Bull Theory