The latest ADP numbers are out and show that over the four weeks ending November 8, 2025, US private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week.
📉 Inflation Isn’t the Story Anymore The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability + maximum employment — and the employment side is flashing red for the first time in years. 💡 And the Market Is Catching On Just 1–2 weeks ago, a December rate cut was basically dismissed. Markets were pricing in 30–42% odds. Then NY Fed President John Williams spoke on Friday — and he all but signaled, in classic Fed-speak, “We need to cut.” He pointed to rising downside risks in employment and fading risks in inflation. 🔍 Fast forward to this yesterday’s data: prediction markets now show an 85% chance of a December rate cut. Source: StockMarket.news
Magnificent 7s Cash Position💰:
$MSFT: $102 Billion $GOOGL: $98 Billion $AMZN: $94 Billion $NVDA: $56 Billion $AAPL: $55 Billion $META: $44 Billion $TSLA: $41 Billion Patient Investor @patientinvestt
An incredible ride $GOOGL 🚀
Source: Trend Spider
🚀 Big Tech Is Carrying the Entire Stock Market — Literally
Alphabet ($GOOGL) has been the single biggest driver of the S&P 500 this year… accounting for 19.4% of the index’s entire YTD gain. That’s what happens when you add $1.3 trillion in market cap in 11 months. Right behind it? Nvidia ($NVDA): +16.0% contribution (+$1.05T) Broadcom ($AVGO): +$520B Microsoft ($MSFT): +$380B Together with the rest of the mega-cap giants, the top 10 stocks now make up 59.4% of the S&P 500’s total gain this year. Which means the other 490 companies combined contributed just 40.6%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, econovisuals
Late November gonna late November?
Stocks bottomed on November 20 and have staged a pretty impressive three day rally. Exactly in line with normal seasonality... Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
Gold loves rising Japanese rates.
This remains a massive driver of the shiny metal, despite few talking about it on a daily basis. Source: The Market Ear
88% chance Americans receive stimulus checks by next summer
Source: Kalshi
Shoppers are showing up for Black Friday–Cyber Monday, but with tighter wallets.
According to Deloitte’s 2025 Black Friday–Cyber Monday survey: 🛍 82% of consumers plan to shop during the week (up from 79% in 2024) 💰 Expected spend is down 4% to an average of $622 💳 64% plan to use credit cards or buy now, pay later (BNPL) options to stretch budgets Both lower- and higher-income households say they’ll cut back It’s also now a true hybrid event: Shoppers expect to split their time 60% online / 40% in store 72% of Gen Z plan to shop in store on Black Friday Gen Z now drives about $20 of every $100 in holiday spend (vs. $4 five years ago) source : Deloitte
