The Bloomberg Commodity Index is breaking out from a three-year range.
Source: Connor Bates @ConnorJBates_ Bloomberg
Politico released a poll yesterday with these alarming results:
Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with. Source: Bianco Research
Strong squeezes in the lower quality stuff such as most shorted and MEME ETF.
Boring BTC remains the relatively soggy one... Source: TME
Will it ever happen? OpenAI does not appear to have sufficient liquidity, and even if it did, current market pressures may lead it to prioritize operational stability rather than aggressive growth
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Gold's long-term correlation with the S&P 500 has just reached an extremely high level, only seen in...August 2007.
Source: Guilherme Tavares i3 invest
Wall Street just dropped its 2026 stock market forecast... and they're expecting another year of double-digit gains for US equities! 🚀
The consensus among major investment banks surveyed by the FT sees the S&P 500 soaring past 7,500 by the end of 2026—a roughly 10% increase from current levels. What's fueling the bull market? 📌 The Triumvirate: Analysts at Morgan Stanley point to "easy fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy," including the estimated $129bn in corporate tax cuts from the Trump administration. 📌AI Tailwinds: The market believes it has shrugged off recent jitters over Big Tech valuations. Companies like Nvidia, the world's first $5T company, continue to power the index. 📌Rate Cuts: Investors are pricing in 3-4 quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of next year, boosting sentiment. The Great Debate: 🐂 Most Bullish (Deutsche Bank): Sees the S&P hitting a massive 8,000, betting on corporate earnings broadening out beyond tech. 🐻 Most Cautious (Bank of America): Forecasts just 7,100, warning that AI spending and data center build-out have yet to appear in better earnings. "For now investors are buying the dream." Note however that while such gains would mark the seventh year of double-digit gains in the past eight, they would represent a slowdown from the 16.6 per cent rise so far in 2025 and the average over the past decade - see chart below https://lnkd.in/eKYt6PK7 Source: FT
Democrats surge in midterm odds. 80% chance they take the House.
Source: Polymarket Polymarket
Is the US economy in the early innings of re-accelerating?
Temporary hiring has re-accelerated, which is an early cycle indicator. Source: Steno Research, Macrobond
