No bounce... pickup up where we left off on Friday.
*SPOT GOLD FALLS 5%, ADDING TO BIGGEST PLUNGE IN OVER A DECADE (Down 18% from Thursday's high) Source: Jim Bianco
The average drawdown in the first 6 months of a new Fed Chair is 15%.
The market likes to test them... Source: NDR, RBC
Markets in Asia are getting shredded on Monday.
Indonesia and Korea down over 5% each; commodities tossed out the window Source: David Ingles
Natural Gas getting dumped 📉📉
Source: Barchart
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.
These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts. Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B. Source: Bianco Research
IS KEVIN WARSH A DOVE OR A HAWK ?
Interestingly, since his name came up yesterday, markets have been pricing in more his hawkish reputation than his more recent dovish tilt: - Risk assets lower: equities down, bitcoin / cryptos down, gold down and silver in bear market! - Steeper yield curve: could be related to the fact that he is in favour of a smaller Fed balance sheet - Stronger dollar So how should we interpret market erratic moves over the last two days? Stop labeling Kevin Warsh as just a "Hawk." 🦅❌ The social media "chattering class" loves a simple label, but the reality of the next Fed Chair is far more nuanced. If you’re building a strategy based on the idea that Warsh is purely a rate-hiker, you’re missing the bigger picture. Here is the "Warsh Playbook" that the headlines are missing: 1. The "Productivity Boom" Pivot 🚀 Warsh isn't looking to keep rates high for the sake of it. He believes the U.S. is in a massive productivity surge. If that’s true, the Fed can actually lower rates without sparking inflation. It’s a growth-friendly view that most "hawks" wouldn't touch. 2. The Policy Mix: Lower Rates + Tighter Balance Sheet ⚖️ This is the sophisticated play. Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s massive balance sheet while simultaneously keeping interest rates manageable. It’s a "tighter but lower" approach that aims for long-term stability rather than short-term sugar rushes. 3. Pragmatism Over Ideology 🛠️ History check: During the COVID-19 onset, Warsh was weeks ahead of Jay Powell in calling for an aggressive response. When the alarm bells ring, he’s shown he’s a practical crisis manager, not a rigid academic. The Bottom Line: Calling him a hawk is a convenient narrative for his confirmation hearings—it shows independence from the White House. But in practice? Expect a Fed Chair who is data-driven, productivity-focused, and ready to move fast when the situation demands it.
📢 Apple reported fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday that surpassed expectations, with revenue soaring 16% on an annual basis.
📌 The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. 🚀 Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. Apple quarterly results by App Economy Insights $AAPL Apple Q1 FY26 (Dec. quarter): 📱 Products +16% Y/Y to $113.7B. 💳 Services +14% Y/Y to $30.0B. • Revenue +16% Y/Y to $143.8B ($5.2B beat). • Operating margin 35% (+1pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.84 ($0.17 beat).
In Germany, the value of the country’s gold reserves has climbed to €496bn.
Germany holds 3,352 tonnes of gold through the Bundesbank. More than 1,200 tonnes are stored in New York, with the rest held in Frankfurt and London. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
