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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Polymarket
Democrat sweep = 50% odds Source: C.Barraud
One war, 7 global shortages
Source: ADAM @AdameMedia Katusa Research
Technical corner by TME ->
$SPX S&P 500 is trading just below range lows, with the 21-day crossing the 200-day MA. The déjà vu setup remains in play for now. A slightly lower close risks accelerating the move to the downside.
Turkey central bank reserves
Turkey’s centralbank sold or swapped roughly 60 tons of gold (over $8 billion) following the Iran conflict to secure foreign exchange or liras via swap agreements, contributing to sharp downward pressure on gold prices. Source: Augur Infinity
After the second-strongest bull market since at least 1974, gold is coming extremely close to bear market territory.
Source: Bespoke
Since the war began, Goldman's Matt Kaplan notes that Thursday/Friday have seen dramatic losses relative to the rest of the week...
Source: zerohedge
US 10 year flirting with the huge 4.4% level. A decisive close above this resistance area and rates risk squeezing more.
Source: TME
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