The U.S. labor market just sent its weakest signal in months.
June payrolls rose by only 57,000, well below expectations of 115,000 and down sharply from May's revised 129,000. At first glance, the unemployment rate improved to 4.2%. But the headline masks growing weakness. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021, while household employment plunged by 507,000 people in a single month. Wage growth remained resilient, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, suggesting inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared. Under the surface, the picture is mixed: 📈 Professional & business services: +36K 📈 Social assistance: +25K 📈 Healthcare: +22K 📈 Government: +8K But leisure & hospitality LOST 61,000 jobs 🚨, despite expectations that the World Cup would boost seasonal hiring. The labor market is no longer collapsing. But it is clearly cooling. For the Fed, this report strengthens the case that growth is slowing, even if wage pressures remain sticky. Source: CNBC
In case you missed it... JOLTs job openings just hit a 2-year high, and that's why the market is reacting positively.
May job openings came in at 7.594 million, well above expectations. A stronger labor market lowers recession risk, but it also gives the Fed less reason to cut rates soon. Markets are still reading it as a soft landing signal, and that's enough to bring risk appetite back. Source: Bull Theory
Traffic through Strait of Hormuz continues to ramp up
Source: Bloomberg
Gold allocations are at multi-decade highs, and they're still tiny.
Private investors hold just 2.7% of financial assets in gold. In 1980 it was 8.3%. Central banks sit at 26.6% versus 62.4% back then. Source: Incrementum AG, Jack Prandelli on X
President Trump earned over $1.4 billion in 2025 from crypto and memecoin-related businesses.
Full Breakdown: 1) Trump meme coin: $635 million 2) World Liberty Financial token sales: $526 million 3) USD1 Stablecoin venture ownership divestment: $196 million 4) Corporate share buyback and stake sale: $65 million 5) Melania NFT business revenue: $6.01 million 6) Ethereum network validator staking rewards: $1.82 million 7) Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC token reserves: $125 million Source: Bull Theory
FT had a couple nice ones showing that AI is not causing job losses.. quite the opposite
Source: FT, RBC
Tesla vs BYD
Source: Khattiya
BREAKING: The US government has lifted export restrictions on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models.
The restrictions, imposed on June 12 over national security concerns, have now been fully removed after Anthropic agreed to strengthen safeguards and coordinate with the US government on AI security. Anthropic said it expects to restore user access starting Wednesday. Source: Bull Theory
