The Bloomberg Global Long Bond Index yield has surged to around 4.2%, its highest level since July 2008.
Long term government borrowing costs are now back at levels last seen during the global financial crisis. The good news is that bond yields are rising alongside earnings growth and real GDP growth upside revisions. The bad news: with governments carrying far more debt today, higher yields are making refinancing increasingly expensive. This could become a major pressure point for global financial markets. Source: Bloomberg
Yesterday, ECB ups inflation outlook for 2025, 2026, cuts it for 2027
2025 Inflation forecast now 2.1% (from 2%), 2026 inflation forecast now 1.7%; (prior forecast 1.6%). ECB sees 2027 at 1.9% (prior estimates 2%). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
This is a composite of stocks that trade on the world's most important stock exchange.
After consolidating for about 10 months, the NYSE Composite Index just closed at the highest levels ever. Source: J-C Parets
"Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets: Combination of record government debt and rising borrowing costs puts central banks under pressure."
Source: Mo El Erian, LSEG, FT
US Chips Act is reshaping global semiconductor landscape
• America looks set to produce around one-third of global supply for leading-edge chips by 2032 • US rise will come at expense of South Korea, which could become minor player for top-notch chips Source: Agathe Demarais
The natural trend of global markets is to go up
Source: BofA
Global debt has officially reached $315 trillion
Source: IIF Global Debt
Tax Revenue vs. GDP for Major Countries
Source: Visual Capitalist
