SPX is pressing the lower end of the “eternal” range that has held since September.
The move lower hasn’t been a panic, it’s been a grind, the type of price action that slowly bleeds positioning rather than flushing it. We’re now below the 200-day, but without any real urgency in the tape. 6600 (futures) remains the line in the sand. Below 6600 → downside accelerates. Hold it → range survives. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG
Will this time be different?
Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB
Despite the rally, energy stocks remain under-owned and not expensive vs. history.
Source: BofA, RBC
With buybacks stepping away, downside moves become more exposed.
McCullen: "We are expecting the next blackout window to begin this week ~3/18, estimating ~45% of the S&P 500 to be in blackout by that point, assuming entry 6 weeks prior to earnings ... We expect blackout to run through the end of April." Source: TME
Oil-equity correlations break during oil supply shocks
Source: zerohedge JP Morgan
While equity indices are holding in reasonably well amidst market stress, the more important market story is under the hood.
There is meaningful dispersion across constituents beneath the surface, reflecting a market that is quickly separating durable growers from more challenged business models. Source: Rick Rieder
Over the past 75 years, the average intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 has been about 14%.
Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. Source: PeterMallouk, The Chart Report
Over 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down 20% from their 52-week highs:
Source: Brian Sozzi
