Will we ever break out of that SPX range?
The index has spent almost six months trading mostly within a 200-point range (with a few over- and undershoots). Impressive given the many under-the-hood moves and the latest political chaos. Source: TME, LSEG
Everyone says the Korea market crash is about geopolitics.
That’s the surface story. The real story might be the biggest hidden risk in the AI boom. In 48 hours, the KOSPI fell 17%. $275B wiped out. Circuit breakers triggered. Tech giants took the hit: • Samsung −10% • SK Hynix −12% Most analysts blame rising tensions in the Middle East and oil above $80. But something deeper is being exposed. Samsung + SK Hynix control: • ~67% of global DRAM • ~80% of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) HBM is the critical fuel of AI infrastructure. Every AI datacenter depends on it. NVIDIA chips. Google TPUs. Hyperscaler AI clusters. And almost all of it comes from one country: South Korea. Here’s the vulnerability: South Korea imports 97% of its energy. Much of it flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The same strait currently under geopolitical threat. That means the AI supply chain may have a single hidden chokepoint: Not chips. Not talent. Not capital. Energy. Because semiconductor fabs cannot run without massive power. And global memory inventories are thin: • DRAM: ~2–3 weeks • NAND: ~3–4 weeks If energy flows are disrupted for more than a month, the entire AI infrastructure buildout could face delays. Markets are already reacting. While semiconductors crashed, defense stocks surged. Capital isn’t leaving Korea. It’s rotating into a new thesis: Energy security is the real constraint of the AI era. The market may have just discovered the weakest link in the AI supercycle. And it’s only 21 miles wide. (The Strait of Hormuz.) Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Despite all things going on, the 6700/7000 range remains intact.
At least for now... Source: TME
The sector rotation so far this year has been absolutely stunning...
Source: Charlie Bilello
The worst performers in the S&P 500 this year--software cos like Workday, Intuit and private credit giants Apollo, Blackstone, Ares
Source: Gunjan Banerji
Have we seen this before? $SLV $EWY
Source: Trend Spider
🚨HAVE US TECH STOCKS PEAKED?
Tech, telecom, and healthcare stocks now make up 44% of global market cap, matching the 2000 Dot-Com bubble peak. Back then, this level marked a major turning point, followed by years of underperformance. Meanwhile, financials, energy, and materials have risen to 25%, mirroring the same early-cycle recovery pattern seen after the Dot-Com peak. Will industrials OUTPERFORM over the upcoming decade? Source: Global Markets Investor
Best defense is defense...
Source: Charlie Bilello
