Gold vs S&P total return.
A rock has outperformed the collective genius of the US capital markets by more than 100% Source: zerohedge
$MSFT with a strong double beat in Q4. The stock is down 6% despite the strong results due to heavy spending.
Microsoft delivered impressive headline numbers, with revenue jumping 17% to $81.3 billion and Azure cloud growth accelerating to 39%, driven by fierce AI demand. The Intelligent Cloud segment is now a massive engine, crossing $32.9 billion in sales. However, capital expenditure nearly doubled to ~$30 billion, raising fears about cash burn. Second, the massive 60% profit jump can be misleading as it includes a $7.6 billion paper gain from the OpenAI investment. Stripping that out, real profit growth was much lower, leaving investors worried that the costs of the AI boom are rising faster than the immediate cash returns. 🔹 EPS: $4.14 vs. $3.91 est. ✅ 🔹 Revenue: $81.27B vs. $80.31B est. ✅ Key takeaways: 🔸 Intelligent Cloud rev: +29% YoY 🔸 Productivity rev: +16% YoY 🔸 Computing rev: -3% YoY 🔸 MSFT Cloud rev: +26% YoY 🔸 Azure/Cloud: +39% YoY Source: KaizenInvestor @Kaizen_Investor Barchart
Cyclicals keep outperforming defensives...
The message from the market on the macro cycle sems pretty clear Source: Bloomberg
Microsoft and Meta quarterly CAPEX -realised and projected
These aren’t the old MSFT and META... Source: Bloomberg, RBC
MSFT and META quarterly results (and capex projections) confirm our thesis: these are not your "old" Mag 7.
Indeed, the AI revolution has hit a major turning point as the largest U.S. tech companies embark on unprecedented AI infrastructure spending. The Magnificent 7 are now turning from Asset light to Asset Heavy. Although markets have so far rewarded this surge in investment, history shows that capex booms often lead to overbuilding, intensified competition, and disappointing stock performance. From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent risks ???
The S&P 500 just passed 7,000 for the first time ever
The index has added over $1.5 TRILLION in market cap within the past week 😳 Source: Peter Tuchman @EinsteinoWallSt Barchart
ASML just dropped their Q4-25 earnings, and the market is absolutely electric. ⚡️
Shares jumped 7%, and it’s not hard to see why. While the world was debating an "AI bubble," ASML’s customers just placed a record-breaking bet on the future. The headline? A massive demand explosion. 🚀 The Numbers You Need to Know: Net Bookings: €13.2B (Massive beat vs. €7B estimate). The demand isn't just there; it’s doubling expectations. Revenue: €9.7B (Beating the €9.58B estimate). Backlog: A staggering €38.8B. ASML has years of work already sold. 2026 Guidance: Revenue projected between €34B - €39B (Top end well above the €35B consensus). The "AI Realism" Shift 🧠 CEO Christophe Fouquet’s statement is the real kicker. He noted a "notably more positive assessment" from customers regarding the sustainability of AI-related demand. This isn't hype. This is capacity planning. This is the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution being bolted into factories right now. Two High NA systems (the most complex machines humans have ever built) were officially recognized in Q4 revenue. The future is being shipped. Shareholder Value 💰 ASML isn't just growing; they are rewarding. A new €12B share buyback program through 2028 shows massive confidence in their long-term cash flow. The Verdict: ASML remains the ultimate bottleneck of the digital age. If you want AI, you need chips. If you want chips, you need ASML. Period. Is the semi-cycle just getting a second wind? 🌬️ Below the numbers and breakdown by App Economy Insights @EconomyApp · $ASML ASML Q4 FY25: • Net bookings €13.2B (€6.9B beat). • Net sales +5% Y/Y to €9.7B (€0.1B beat). • Gross margin 52% (+0pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 35% (-1pp Y/Y). • EPS €7.35 (€0.23 miss). • FY26 Net sales ~€36.5B (€1.4B beat).
FT headline today as S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday
Does it mean that the "sell US assets" narrative is already dead? Source: FT
