One channel. Six years of price action. Now testing the limits. $SPX
Source: Trend Spider
There are more stocks on the NYSE in uptrends right now than an any other point since 2024. Is so much winning a bad thing for investors?
Source: J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX
The Great Rotation Small-Caps vs. Large-Cap
rotation
BREAKING: The AI chip boom shows no signs of slowing.
Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM, reported a +35% YoY increase in net profit for Q4 2025, driven by surging AI chip demand. Asia’s most valuable company has now posted YoY profit growth for 8 consecutive quarters. At the same time, revenue grew +21% YoY in Q4 2025, to $33.7 billion. Both revenue and profit beat analyst estimates. Full-year 2025 revenue jumped +32% YoY and surpassed $100 billion for the first time in company history. TSMC also expects record CapEx in 2026, at $52-56 billion, up +32% YoY, to expand global manufacturing capacity. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Q4 earnings season officially kicks off yesterday.
Source: Brew markets
The Great American Oil Paradox
The U.S. is executing a unique energy “double-play,” exporting massive amounts of light, sweet shale crude while still importing heavy, sour oil to match its legacy refinery infrastructure. This paradox being both a top exporter and importer makes the country the central hinge of the global oil market. Far from a weakness, this interdependence gives the U.S. leverage, allowing it to balance supply and influence prices worldwide as we head into 2026. Source: Jack Prandelli
Believe it or not, investor's positioning on equities is still not over-extended.
Deutsche Bank: "Notably, while investor sentiment has risen meaningfully over the last 6 weeks, positioning in our reading has not yet followed, with discretionary investors are still holding cautiously near neutral (0.09sd, 51st percentile). Systematic strategy positioning though is higher (0.71sd, 82nd percentile)." Source: DB, TME
Long EM. Short US large caps.
Is the Dalio playbook about to break out? Source: Trend Spider
