Syz the moment

He says he replaced many of these short positions with put positions, and cited tax loss harvesting as some of the motivation behind these changes. He says he believes the AI bubble "may burst sooner rather than later." Source: Trend Spider

Anthropic files for an IPO that could value the company at more than $2 TRILLION, per Reuters. Details from Anthropic's IPO prospectus: 1. Reported a net loss of $42B in 2025. 2. Anthropic plans to spend $518B on future cloud, computing and infrastructure commitments. 3. Operating loss increased to $8.06B from $2.98B in 2024. 4. Its IPO valuation could exceed $2 TRILLION, more than double its $965B valuation in May. 5. Revenue surged 12x in 2025 to $4.6B. 6. Almost 25% of its revenue came from just two customers. The IPO could be pushed back until after the November US midterm elections. Source: Bull Theory, Wolf financial

Foreign Investors pumped $426 Billion into U.S. Stocks during the 2nd quarter, the largest inflow in history, shattering the previous record of $299 Billion set in 2022 Source: FT, BofA

The S&P 500 is near an all-time high. Nearly half its stocks are moving to a different beat. Goldman Sachs says the divergence resembles the market dynamics of the tech bubble. The top 10 stocks now account for roughly 40% of the index. Many are riding the AI boom. At that size, they can lift the S&P 500 even as a broad swath of stocks struggles. For other companies, the backdrop is tougher: higher bond yields, oil above $100, a stronger dollar and rising borrowing costs. Businesses exposed to interest rates, energy prices and the wider economy feel those pressures most. The index is telling you where the biggest stocks are going. It is telling you much less about the experience of the average stock. Source: Bull Theory, GS

GS -> It's the speed, not the level The important part is not the level of yields but how fast they are rising. A number of Goldman desks cited the same rule of thumb: equities begin to react when the 10-year makes a two-standard-deviation move, which works out to about 50bp over one month or 30bp over two weeks. The Goldman traders added that: "The 10yr is now up ~25bps in 2 weeks, and 35bps in the past month, so we are not far off." Source: GS, zerohedge

The credit market is asking a harder question: who pays for the AI buildout? The cost of insuring Nvidia’s debt against default has roughly doubled this year. SpaceX credit default swaps have approached 180 basis points. Both companies sold $25 billion of bonds in June, while hyperscalers are on track to spend more than $750 billion on data centers in 2026. Equity investors see growth, revenue and momentum. Credit investors are looking at the debt needed to fund it—and the returns required to repay it. Rising insurance costs do not mean a default is coming. But they do show that lenders are reassessing the risk. The stock price tells you how excited investors are about AI. Credit spreads tell you what financing that excitement costs. Watch both. $NVDA Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS

The US 10-year yield has breached 5.1%, with a 16bp daily rise, the second-largest one-day move in two years. For equities, GS argues the rate of change matters more than the level. The moves that tend to get stocks’ attention are roughly 50bp over a month or 30bp over two weeks. We are close, but not there yet: the 10-year is up about 35bp over the past month and 25bp over two weeks. Still, as GS’s Ben Snider has highlighted, with the S&P trading around 19x forward earnings, higher yields are already working against valuations in the background. Source: GS, TME

"Big Short" investor Michael Burry disclosed in his latest Substack post that he is adding to several of his biggest bearish bets. Burry increased his short positions "in some size" in: 1. Micron 2. Nebius 3. SOXX 4. Palantir Burry also pointed to comments from Acer CEO Jason Chen, who said memory chip inventories are building while Chinese suppliers are flooding the market with more supply. Burry wrote,"Nevertheless, it aligns with what I believe to be true." Burry also disclosed additional purchases of: 1. QXO 2. Build-A-Bear Workshop 3. Sprouts Farmers Market 4. Birkenstock 5. MercadoLibre Source: Bull Theory