A massive global food supply crisis could start next year because of fertilizer shortages, per JPMorgan.
Unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve for fertilizer. Source: Bull Theory, JP Morgan
Diesel is flashing RED.
The US diesel crack spread — the margin between crude oil and diesel — just hit a record $102/barrel, setting new highs in five of the last six sessions. Why it matters: ⛽ US diesel inventories are at their lowest seasonal level since 1996. 🏭 Global refinery output is down ~5 million barrels/day YoY amid disruptions linked to Iran and Ukraine. 🇷🇺 Russia has restricted diesel exports through January. 🚜 And Northern Hemisphere harvest season is starting — exactly when diesel demand from agriculture rises. Most investors watch crude oil. But diesel is arguably more important for the real economy. Trucks, tractors, ships and heavy machinery depend on it. One study estimates diesel prices explain 46% of trucking costs. Higher diesel → higher freight costs → higher food and goods prices. And with producer prices already rising faster than consumer prices, some of those costs could still be waiting to reach consumers. Oil may drive the headlines. Diesel could be the one driving inflation higher. Source: Hedgie
Uranium hits highest price since February
Source: Barchart
No rare earths = no fighter jets = no modern war machine.
The U.S. remains heavily dependent on China for critical rare-earth materials, with roughly 70% of rare-earth imports coming from China. And Beijing has increasingly demonstrated its willingness to restrict exports of strategic minerals. The vulnerability goes far beyond fighter jets. Rare earths and related critical minerals are essential for missiles, radar systems, drones, satellites, precision-guided weapons, submarines and advanced electronics. If inventories are already tight, a prolonged disruption in Chinese supply could become a serious bottleneck for U.S. defense production. That creates a striking strategic paradox: America's military-industrial base still depends, in part, on supply chains dominated by its biggest geopolitical rival. China doesn't necessarily need to fire a shot to exert pressure. Sometimes the most powerful weapon is controlling what your opponent needs to keep fighting. Sun Tzu would understand the strategy. Source: Lukas Ekwueme
The market just gave us a glimpse of how sensitive gold is to the Fed pat.
What happens if the Fed doesn’t hike at all this year? Source: Katusa Research @KatusaResearch
America’s oil safety cushion is being drained from both sides.
Since early April, total U.S. crude inventories have fallen by 166 million barrels, from 712M, marking 17 consecutive weekly declines — the longest streak on record. But the bigger story is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Washington has released 111M barrels since March, pushing the SPR down to just 305M barrels — its lowest level since 1983. Normally, SPR releases offset shortages in the commercial market. This time, commercial crude inventories are falling too, declining for 10 straight weeks. In other words, the Gulf crisis isn't simply moving oil from government reserves into private storage. America's entire crude buffer is shrinking. That works if the disruption is temporary. But the longer the crisis lasts, the more valuable — and strategically important — those remaining 305M SPR barrels become. The SPR was built for exactly this kind of shock. Now the shock is steadily consuming it. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bespoke
Gold ripping and now finally breaking out
Source: Barchart
This looks like a clean breakout
#goldminers Source: Tavi Costa
