Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey.
Higher oil prices crush import-dependent economies like India: Oil ↑ → Growth ↓ → Currency ↓ → Import costs ↑ → Gold demand ↓. That’s why gold has been weak despite geopolitical chaos. India is curbing gold imports to defend the Rupee. Turkey already burned reserves. China is temporarily balancing the system by cutting crude imports. The real story isn’t “gold vs fear.” It’s commodities, FX, and EM liquidity transmission. Mental flexibility > rigid macro views. Source: Alexander Stahel on X Bloomberg
$4400 on gold: this support MUST hold
Gold has continued its huge consolidation phase following the violent pukes we saw earlier this year. The shorter-term trend line has survived several tests, but we are now approaching the major $4400 level, with the 200 day moving average coming in just below. That is the must hold area. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Miners are currently seeing the strongest margins in the history of the data.
Source: Tavi Costa
Yesterday, Gold put in its biggest up day in quite some time during yesterday’s session.
The shiny metal broke above the short-term downtrend line and also pushed out of a dynamic wedge-like formation. The key for a more sustained squeeze is a close above the $4800 area, right where the 50-day moving average comes in. More on gold. Source: TME
🔥Silver and gold prices are surging:
Silver and gold are up +4.5% and +1.0% on Thursday, on track for the 3rd consecutive day of gains. Silver is now up +10% and gold is up +4.0% over the last 2 trading sessions. Following the recent pullback, investors are returning to gold and silver, with many viewing this dip as a buying opportunity. Furthermore, global growth concerns, central bank demand, and a macro environment increasingly favoring hard assets continue to support prices, reinforcing the broader bullish backdrop. At the same time, decades of underinvestment and constrained supply growth have created a structurally higher price environment for precious metals. Is another leg of the precious metals bull run now unfolding? Source: Global Markets Investor
U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers
The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump. The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%. Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country. Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne. For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation. Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss. Farms are under pressure. Source: Hedgeye
SOX vs. Silver: mind the gap!
AI demand for silver is still small, likely only a low single-digit % of total demand. But it’s the fastest-growing piece, with AI servers using significantly more silver than traditional hardware. And importantly, cost isn’t a constraint. Silver is a tiny part of system spend, making AI a strong marginal buyer. As shown on the hashtag#chart below, the SOX vs silver gap is huge. Is chasing silver upside convexity instead of SOX at 60x P/E a more attractive bet? Source: TME
Oil flows from the Gulf
"Estimated oil flows from the Gulf (including pipeline redirections) increased to 10.4mb/d or 45% of normal on higher Yanbu exports as Saudi East-West pipeline full pumping capacity was restored within 4 days after the damage." Source: Goldman, zerohedge
