Goldman team is coming out with higher for longer for oil prices even after the "all clear" sounds and SoH is reopened.
Source: Open Square Capital
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar and the oil crisis
Last time it caught strong bids and squeezed for some 6 months. A similar move would tighten financial conditions quickly. Source. TS Lombard, TME
3 scenarios on Iran War by UBS
1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions. 2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization. 3. Extended disruption / infrastructure damage: Severe supply shock; Brent could reach $150+ by 2Q26 and TTF ~€80, creating a crisis similar to the 2022 European gas shock. ➡️ One thing is clear: OVX is not pricing the de-escalation scenario, closing at 121. Source. UBS, TME
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Today, oil printed one of the biggest shooting star candles we have ever seen
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
The last 24 hours of trading in the April 2026 WTI trading might be the wildest day in the 40+ year history of crude oil futures trading.
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
