Gold miners are trading at one of the deepest discounts to the S&P 500 on record.
Fundamentals remain strong. Prices keep falling. Source: Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Ouch 🩸
Silver $SLV is in the midst of a 200EMA breakdown Source: Trend Spider
PRECIOUS METALS ARE CRASHING
Over $1.74 TRILLION has been wiped out from precious metals in the last 24 HOURS. Gold is down -4.75%, wiping out $1.41 trillion from its market cap. Silver is down -9%, wiping out $327 billion from its market cap. Source: Bull Theory
Asset class total returns since 2011
Winners: Commodities +30.7%; Convertibles +18.7%; Nasdaq 100 +14.9%; US Small Caps +12.8% Losers: IG bonds 0%; Gold 0%; US Total bonds markets 0%; Long duration Treasuries -0.6%; Bitcoin -30.3% Source: Charlie Bilello
Trafigura just made $4.1 billion in 6 months.
That's more than its entire 2025 full year. October-December 2025 was the 2nd-best quarter in company history and the war hadn't even fully started yet. For context: → Trafigura full-year 2025 profit: $2.7 billion → Trafigura H1 2026 profit: $4.1 billion → Time elapsed: 6 months Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey.
Higher oil prices crush import-dependent economies like India: Oil ↑ → Growth ↓ → Currency ↓ → Import costs ↑ → Gold demand ↓. That’s why gold has been weak despite geopolitical chaos. India is curbing gold imports to defend the Rupee. Turkey already burned reserves. China is temporarily balancing the system by cutting crude imports. The real story isn’t “gold vs fear.” It’s commodities, FX, and EM liquidity transmission. Mental flexibility > rigid macro views. Source: Alexander Stahel on X Bloomberg
$4400 on gold: this support MUST hold
Gold has continued its huge consolidation phase following the violent pukes we saw earlier this year. The shorter-term trend line has survived several tests, but we are now approaching the major $4400 level, with the 200 day moving average coming in just below. That is the must hold area. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Miners are currently seeing the strongest margins in the history of the data.
Source: Tavi Costa
