Oil is still trading at these new elevated levels, but above all, oil volatility (OVX) remains in pure panic mode.
Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Double top?
Gold is printing a sizable down candle following yesterday’s shooting star formation. We may be looking at a second lower high developing, raising the risk of a potential double top. The steep trend line sits well below current levels, and the 50-day moving average doesn’t come in until around $4,830. Source: The Market Ear
Have we seen this before? $SLV $EWY
Source: Trend Spider
Research from Goldman shows that rising oil prices hurt emerging market economies as a whole.
While emerging markets typically depend more heavily on commodity exports compared to developed markets, they also use a greater share of commodities relative to their GDP. This makes them vulnerable to the indirect consequences of higher oil prices, such as slowed global economic growth. Noteworthy exceptions include Brazil and Russia. Source: Goldman Sachs, Markets & Mayhem
Bloomberg Commodity index $BCOM vs. US 10-year breakevens is now trading with a massive gap
A divergence we rarely see. Source: TME, LSEG
Chasing overbought oil is usually a bad trade.
Source: TME, LSEG
$GDX Gold miners at all time highs
Source: TrendSpider
It Was Never About Iran or Venezuela. It’s About China.
+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is usedChina’s rise has a quiet weakness: energy dependence. 🇨🇳 China imports 70%+ of its oil 🛢️ And that oil comes from a very small club of countries Here’s the part most people miss: Venezuela (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2), and Iran (#3) Together control ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves Now connect the dots. The public narratives are familiar: • Remove dictators • Stop drug trafficking • Prevent nuclear weapons All valid concerns. But they don’t explain the pattern. 🔹 If drugs were the real reason, Mexico would be the main target 🔹 If nukes were the red line, North Korea would be regime-changed 🔹 If authoritarianism was intolerable, the list would be much longer So why Iran and Venezuela? Because both sit on massive oil reserves And both have been energy lifelines for China This isn’t about invasion or ownership. It’s about influence: • Who they trade with • Who they align with • Who gets access when supply tightens You don’t need to control oil. You just need to shape who can’t access it. Seen through that lens, the strategy becomes clear: 🧠 Pressure China without firing at China 🌍 Reshape global energy leverage ♟️ Play the long game, quietly Source: SoveyX Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
