Gold just finished its 7th consecutive month higher, the longest streak in history.
Source: RBC, BofA
🚨 TTF +25% to ~€40/MWh Biggest day jump since Aug 2023. 8 month high.
Why? Hormuz risk = 15% of global LNG flows exposed, mainly Qatari cargoes. Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with seaborne LNG. Now that LNG must pass the Gulf. Starting point isn’t comfortable: • EU storage ~31% vs ~40% last year • Germany ~20% • France ~21% Add: • Large speculative shorts • Forced short covering • Front-month panic buying If Qatari LNG is materially disrupted for weeks, analysts see €80–100/MWh possible. Source: Jack Prandelli
CHART OF THE DAY: European Gas prices are now up 45% after the Qatari LNG production halts
Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
THE BIG MONEY IS QUIETLY POSITIONING FOR A GOLD EXPLOSION.
While retail investors are panic-selling the dip, the "smart money" is doing something absolutely radical. I’m looking at the COMEX data, and the numbers are staggering. The Strategy: Insiders are loading up on gold options with strike prices between $15,000 and $20,000 for December 2026. The Context: Current Gold Price: ~$4,961 The Target: A 3x to 4x increase in value. Here is the part most people missed: This buying spree didn't happen during the hype. It started right after gold hit $5,600 and "dumped" hard. When the price dipped below $5,000, retail investors ran for the exits. They saw a correction; the insiders saw a generational entry point. Right now, they are sitting on over 11,000 contracts. Why does this matter? Because you don’t place a bet that gold will triple out of "optimism." You do it because you see a fundamental shift in the global financial system that others are ignoring. Source: Alex Mason @AlexMasonCrypto
TME: "Gold bounced cleanly off the 50-day and the longer-term trend line.
We’re now trading at the highest levels since that bounce, hovering around the 50% retracement of the large down candle. So far, this has been a textbook rebound as positioning resets. gold likely needs more time to consolidate. $5,200 stands out as major resistance, while $4,800 marks key support". Source: TME
What if?
Source: Jeff Weniger @JeffWeniger
A billionaire Chinese trader has built the largest net SHORT position in silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, holding ~450 tons, or 30,000 contracts.
His short position is now worth ~$300 million in paper gains after silver prices collapsed. Including losses from earlier positions (he has been forced to liquidate some positions), he stands to make a net profit of ~1 billion yuan, or $144 million. Previously, he made nearly $3 BILLION from bullish gold bets on the Shanghai exchange since early 2022. A billionaire ramped up his Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
Glencore agrees to sell 40% stake on its two African copper and cobalt businesses to a US government-backed group
Washington continues to seek more control over critical minerals. The deal values the 100% of the mines at $9 billion, including debt. $GLEN Source: Javier Blas @JavierBlas
