Goldman estimates the following effects on the fair value of oil prices in scenarios for one-month disruptions to oil flows through the Strait:
+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
Goldman Sachs on near-term oil price outlook following start of Operation Epic Fury:
"Based on the 15% weekend gain in retail prices, we estimate an $18/bbl real-time risk premium in crude oil prices, which corresponds approximately to our estimate of the fair value effect of a six-week full halt in Strait of Hormuz flows (allowing for spare pipeline capacity use as a partial offset). This estimated impact moderates to +$4 if only 50% of the flows are halted for one month. However, oil prices can rise substantially more if the market demands a premium for the risk of more persistent supply disruptions." Source: Brian Sozzi
From Yardeni:
“.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario.”
Gold just finished its 7th consecutive month higher, the longest streak in history.
Source: RBC, BofA
🚨 TTF +25% to ~€40/MWh Biggest day jump since Aug 2023. 8 month high.
Why? Hormuz risk = 15% of global LNG flows exposed, mainly Qatari cargoes. Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with seaborne LNG. Now that LNG must pass the Gulf. Starting point isn’t comfortable: • EU storage ~31% vs ~40% last year • Germany ~20% • France ~21% Add: • Large speculative shorts • Forced short covering • Front-month panic buying If Qatari LNG is materially disrupted for weeks, analysts see €80–100/MWh possible. Source: Jack Prandelli
CHART OF THE DAY: European Gas prices are now up 45% after the Qatari LNG production halts
Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
THE BIG MONEY IS QUIETLY POSITIONING FOR A GOLD EXPLOSION.
While retail investors are panic-selling the dip, the "smart money" is doing something absolutely radical. I’m looking at the COMEX data, and the numbers are staggering. The Strategy: Insiders are loading up on gold options with strike prices between $15,000 and $20,000 for December 2026. The Context: Current Gold Price: ~$4,961 The Target: A 3x to 4x increase in value. Here is the part most people missed: This buying spree didn't happen during the hype. It started right after gold hit $5,600 and "dumped" hard. When the price dipped below $5,000, retail investors ran for the exits. They saw a correction; the insiders saw a generational entry point. Right now, they are sitting on over 11,000 contracts. Why does this matter? Because you don’t place a bet that gold will triple out of "optimism." You do it because you see a fundamental shift in the global financial system that others are ignoring. Source: Alex Mason @AlexMasonCrypto
TME: "Gold bounced cleanly off the 50-day and the longer-term trend line.
We’re now trading at the highest levels since that bounce, hovering around the 50% retracement of the large down candle. So far, this has been a textbook rebound as positioning resets. gold likely needs more time to consolidate. $5,200 stands out as major resistance, while $4,800 marks key support". Source: TME
