The best performing commodities over the past year:
Silver (+273%), Platinum (+178%), and Gold (+89%). These are the biggest YoY gains for these 3 precious metals since 1979-1980. Source: Charlie Bilello
A Historic Moment for Silver
Yesterday, SLV (the world’s largest Silver ETF) traded $38 Billion in total value and 393 Million shares in total volume: - It was SLV’s highest-ever value traded (no other day in history even came close). - It was SLV’s highest-ever volume (prior records: May 5 2011, February 1 2021). To gauge the true scale of this frenzy… Let’s compare it to SPY which traded $42 Billion yesterday (chart). In its entire 20-year history, SLV traded this much relative to SPY *only once* before: On April 25 2011. Source: Macro charts
Gold volatility is now the global cross-asset volatility outlier (silver too, though that market is essentially broken for now).
Hedging “global” risk via gold volatility at these levels is very unattractive. Source: The Market Ear
If you want to understand why silver is hitting $100/oz in 2026, stop looking at the news and start looking at the 1-year silver swap minus US interest rates.
In a "sane" market, this line stays above zero. It’s called Contango. 📈 It means: There’s plenty of silver to go around. No one is panicking. You pay a small premium to hold it later because of storage and insurance costs. But right now? We aren’t in Contango. We aren’t even in "normal" Backwardation. We are in EXTREME BACKWARDATION. 📉🔥 When that line drops below zero, the math flips. The market is effectively saying: “We need your silver so badly that we will literally PAY YOU to sell it to us today and buy it back later.” What does this tell us? The Vaults are Bleeding: LBMA and COMEX inventories are hitting decade lows. Industrial Desperation: AI chip manufacturers and EV giants aren't waiting for "better prices"—they are buying everything that isn't bolted down. The Great Decoupling: The "paper price" on a screen is becoming a fantasy. The price of a real bar in your hand is the only thing that matters. When lease rates for silver stay higher than cash interest rates, you aren't looking at a "bubble." You’re looking at a physical shortage. The shorts are being squeezed. The vaults are being drained. Does it mean the silver rally 🚀 has further to go??? Source: Karel Mercx @KarelMercx Bloomberg
January 2017 Silver was trading at $16.50
Source: @realDonaldTrump
Who really holds the world’s gold?
• 🇺🇸 United States still dominates with 8,100+ tonnes • 🇩🇪 Germany remains Europe’s anchor • 🇮🇹 🇫🇷 🇷🇺 all sit around 2,300–2,450 tonnes • 🇨🇳 China keeps climbing, quietly • 🇨🇭 Switzerland punches far above its size • 🇯🇵 🇮🇳 hold far less than their economic weight
The spread between silver prices in Shanghai vs London is skyrocketing...
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Wait a minute...
Source: Heisenberg
