The Nasdaq, the Dow, and S&P 500 Index all advanced, while the Russell 2000 Index was little changed, in a week characterized by sharp swings tied to the Fed’s policy meeting, the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, and volatility in AI-related shares. Consumer discretionary led the S&P 500 sectors—supported by a late-week rally in Amazon shares. Concerns about the sustainability of heavy AI investments continued early in the week, with many AI-related shares coming under pressure amid questions about elevated capex, circular financing, and rising competition. However, sentiment reversed sharply on Thursday after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business and issued an encouraging outlook, helping support a broad rebound in recently weak tech stocks. The Fed left the rate target range unchanged. However, three policymakers dissented, voting instead to raise rates.

U.S. equities ended mostly lower, pressured by doubts over the payoff from heavy AI capex and a sharp jump in oil prices. The Nasdaq lagged (-2.13%) while the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 fell more modestly. Corproate earnings dominated a thin macro week, with 86 S&P 500 names reporting. Alphabet and Tesla both sold off on elevated capex and softer cash flow reinforcing the broader unease about big tech's AI spending. On the geopolitical side, stalled ceasefire efforts in the Middle East sent brent oil to $100. Energy shares benefited; travel and consumer names suffered. The spike in oil prices revived inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields up and nudging market pricing toward a possible Fed hike.

US stocks sold off on, led by chips. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on the week, the Nasdaq 2.9% and the Dow 0.9%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped almost 9%, its third weekly decline in four weeks, and the SOX sits roughly 18–20% below its June highs. Among the reasons, Beijing-based Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model that reportedly matched or outperformed several leading US models, trailing only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6. Investors read it as a second "DeepSeek moment," reviving doubts about US AI capex and chip valuations. The Tech rout spread across Asia with both Japan and Korea momentum unwinding.

Equities ended a volatile week higher, with indices clawing back losses from the collapsed Iran ceasefire. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both notched weekly gains of more than 1%; the Dow slipped roughly 0.5% on the week. Semiconductors again led. Meta jumped about 15%, its best week since early 2024. Friday's marquee event was SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut, which opened around 14% above its $149 ADR price after a seven-times-oversubscribed, $26.5bn offering. Europe was subdued, with the Stoxx 600 near flat. The 10-year Treasury yield settled around 4.55%, easing modestly by the end of the week as oil retreated. June Fed minutes showed only a few members favoring a hike, but markets still price at least one increase by year-end — a hawkish tilt reinforced by AI-driven demand concerns.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week mixed, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones advancing while the Russell 2000 declined. We note that Momentum stocks fell 18% on Wednesday & Thursday. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. On the macro front, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, missing estimates (110,000) and marking the softest reading since February’s negative print. Prior months were also revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Following the report, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting dropped from around 29% to about 18%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, private payrolls firm ADP also reported that private employers added a lower-than-expected 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week mixed, as renewed weakness in large-cap tech and AI-related shares weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and Dow advanced 1.01% and 0.60%, respectively. As measured by Russell indexes, large-cap value stocks outpaced their growth counterparts by 368 basis points, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index also solidly outperformed its market cap-weighted peer. On the US macro side, PCE inflation accelerated but spending and income rose. June business activity improved as GDP growth was revised higher.

Most major U.S. stock indexes closed the holiday-shortened week higher, with sentiment broadly supported by news that the U.S. and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding, clearing the path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and helping push oil prices lower (worst week in 2 months). Of the major US equities indexes, the Nasdaq Composite performed best, advancing 2.4%, followed by the Russell 2000 and S&P 500, which added 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, as widely expected. However, the central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference were largely interpreted as leaning hawkish, triggering a sell-off in stocks and a rise in short-term Treasury yields on Wednesday afternoon.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended the volatile week higher as cautious optimism around a possible U.S.-Iran agreement, declining oil prices, and continued broadening beyond large-cap tech stocks helped offset mixed inflation data and volatility in AI-related shares. Small-cap stocks led the advance, with the Russell 2000 Index rising 3.9%, while the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all added over 0.6%. The Russell 1000 Value Index outpaced its growth counterpart for the second week in a row. Risk appetite improved late in the week, following reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement and President Trump’s cancellation of planned strikes.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower. Declines were led by the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell 4.68%, followed by the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Indexes, the latter of which posted a weekly loss for the first time since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held up best, declining 0.32%. Early gains tied to artificial intelligence (AI) optimism faded later in the week as investors weighed oil price volatility tied to Middle East headlines, elevated earnings expectations for AI-linked companies, a growing pipeline of AI-related equity issuance, and a stronger-than-expected May payrolls report that helped push Treasury yields higher on Friday.

Major U.S. stock indexes rose during the holiday-shortened week, with several benchmarks closing at record highs, as investor sentiment was supported by rising hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, falling oil prices, and continued momentum in artificial intelligence-linked stocks. The Nasdaq Composite led among the major benchmarks, buoyed in part by AI optimism, while the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 Indexes also posted solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged but still rose 0.9%. Early reports that the U.S. and Iran were moving toward a 60-day ceasefire extension and a reopening of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped push oil prices lower and supported risk appetite through much of the week.