Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

U.S. stocks declined during the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 1.32% and dropping back into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite fell to a lesser extent and remained positive year-to-date. Major indexes were broadly higher through Thursday, buoyed by some better-than-expected economic data releases as well as reports that trade talks between the U.S. and China had led to a preliminary agreement to ease recent trade tensions. However, sentiment quickly turned negative on Friday morning on news that Israel had launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders, with a pledge of more attacks to come, to which Iran reportedly responded with a retaliatory attack later on Friday.

Main U.S. equities indices closed higher for the 2nd week in a row. The Russell 2000 Index outperformed (up +3.2%), while the Nasdaq (+2.2%) and the Dow (+1.2%) both advanced to join the S&P 500 Index in positive territory for the year. At the sector level, Tech outperformed, due in part to upbeat sentiment around AI-related stocks. Tesla was a notable underperformer on the back of Trump-Musk breakdown. On the trade side, tensions between the U.S. and China continued to re-escalate and then eased on Thursday, as Trump and Xi Jinping held a phone call that “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries,” according to a social media post from Trump. The highlight of the week’s economic calendar arguably came from Friday’s closely watched US nonfarm payrolls report, which seemed to indicate the labor market is cooling but at a slower pace than many were anticipating. This helped offset the “Musk-Trump tantrum”.

U.S. stocks rebounded during the holiday-shortened week, although major indexes faced some selling pressure late in the week and finished below their best levels. The Nasdaq led the way, gaining 2.01%, followed by the S&P 500 Index (1.88%). Smaller-cap indexes lagged. Equity markets opened higher following a weekend announcement from President Trump that he would delay the introduction of a new 50% tariff on imports from the EU until July 9. Later in the week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump did not have the authority to impose the vast majority of the global tariffs that have been implemented since the start of his second term, sending stocks sharply higher on Thursday morning; however, the administration quickly appealed the ruling, and a federal appeals court put a temporary hold on the ruling Thursday evening, which led to stocks giving back some gains by the end of the week.

US stocks pulled back this week as investors have been digesting a Moody's downgrade of US debt, the House's passage of a budget bill that could further increase the Federal deficit, a slew of retailer earnings that suggest that the US consumer has been so-far undaunted by tariff uncertainties, and Friday's social media post from President Trump indicating that the EU could be hit with a much higher import tariff rate as soon as the end of next week if trade negotiations fail US small- and mid-cap indexes fared worst, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones both fell back into negative territory for the year after ending the prior week slightly positive.

U.S. equities posted strong gains for the week, with positive sentiment largely driven by news that the U.S. and China had agreed to a substantial de-escalation of trade tensions following talks in Switzerland over the weekend. The Nasdaq Composite led the way for major indexes, advancing 7.2%, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones gained 5.3% and 3.4%, respectively. On the US macro side, consumer price inflation in April was lower than expected. Retail sales growth decelerated in April while consumer sentiment continued to slide. In the EU, industrial production jumped in March, suggesting that the sector is emerging from a two-year recession.

Major indexes finished the week narrowly mixed. Small- and mid-cap indexes led the way, posting gains for the fifth consecutive week, while the Dow fell modestly. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite were down roughly 50bp for the week as investors continue to digest the White House's on again/off again trade policy, ongoing developments in AI technology, the Fed, and a long tail of 1Q earnings. However, we note that exactly one month after the White House's surprising decision to pause its week-old reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 now sits 835 points higher (+17%) than it was at its recent low seen back on April 7th. Stocks fell in the early part of the week but recovered some losses on Wednesday following reports that U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions.

U.S. stocks finished the week higher, with the S&P 500 Index logging its 2nd consecutive week of gains for the 1st time since January and closing Friday with its 9th straight session in positive territory - its longest win streak since Nov 2004. It has erased all of the post-Liberation-Day losses. The string of news coming out this week was unequivocally positive, supporting the market recovery that we have seen since the bottom on Apr-9. The White House continued to unilaterally pull back on its tariff policies, introducing a partial exemption for US Auto makers that use imported auto parts. On the macro side, April Payrolls report (published on Friday) revealed a resilient labor market with non-farm payrolls rising 177k alongside an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%.

U.S. equities advanced during the week, supported by several reports indicating that the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China could be de-escalating. Speculation around near-term agreements with several other trading partners also appeared to be a tailwind, as were comments from President Donald Trump that appeared to walk back his recent threat to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Some better-than-expected corporate earnings releases during the week also seemed to be a driver of positive sentiment. According to data from FactSet, 73% of the companies that had reported first-quarter results through Friday morning had beaten consensus earnings expectations. The Nasdaq led the rally, up 4 days in a row (including 3 days gaining more than 2% in a row - the most since 2001).

Major US stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week mixed. Smaller-cap indexes outperformed, with the Russell 2000 Index posting gains, while the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes all closed the week lower. The Tech sector was a notable decliner during the week, due in part to news that the U.S. government would add new restrictions on exports of chips to China in a further escalation of the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to add to the negative sentiment in the latter half of the week. On the macro side, US consumer spending rose 1.4% yoy in March, the highest monthly increase in over two years, as consumers rushed to buy cars ahead of the Trump administration’s 25% tariff on automobiles.

U.S. stocks closed higher after a volatile week in which a slew of trade-related headlines continued to dominate investor sentiment. The week opened with equities sharply lower, as negative sentiment intensified ahead of Wednesday’s implementation of the Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs. However, on Wednesday, Trump announced that he was authorizing a 90-day pause on the higher reciprocal tariffs for most countries to allow time for negotiations. The news sent stocks rocketing higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 12% and logging its second-best day on record.

1 2 3 4 5

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks