Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher, rebounding from a sharp sell-off at the end of the prior week. Value stocks outperformed growth shares by the widest weekly margin since September, driven in part by outperformance in the energy sector amid higher oil prices and some profit-taking in large-cap tech stocks. The financials sector also posted strong weekly gains, aided by some earnings upside surprises. On the macro side, year-over-year US core inflation (less food and energy) slowed in December to 3.2% versus 3.3% in November and lower than expected. This number provides optimism that the Fed is still making progress on bringing down inflation following several months of elevated readings, which keeps the door open for potential rate cuts later in the year.

U.S. equities declined during the week. Small-cap stocks underperformed their large-cap peers for the fifth week in the past six weeks, as the Russell 2000 Index dipped into correction territory. Value stocks held up better than their growth counterparts. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.34%, its biggest weekly drop since mid-November. The week started on a positive note following a report that the incoming Trump administration’s proposed stance on tariffs was likely to be softer than previously indicated. However, optimism faded throughout the week after President-elect Donald Trump refuted these reports and several pieces of economic data fueled concerns about stubborn inflation.

Major US stock indexes were mixed during the holiday-shortened week, although broad gains on Friday helped indexes finish off their worst levels. On the macro side, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Monday came in at 36.9 in December, falling short of consensus expectations of 42.9. December marked the 13th consecutive month of contracting activity and the steepest month-over-month drop since May. Stocks also fell on Thursday, the first trading day of the new year, partially in response to the Atlanta Fed’s downward revision to its Q4 GDP forecast, from 3.1% to 2.6%. In more positive news, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims of 211,000 for the week ended December 28. US Treasury yields were all lower on the week with the long-end underperforming.

Major US stock indexes produced moderate gains in the final full week of the year. Friday saw a puke in stocks as year-end pension rebalancing hit the market. US macro surprises were negative on the week; , The Conference Board reported that its index of U.S. consumer confidence fell in December to 104.7 from 112.8 in November. For the fourth time in the past six months, new orders for durable goods declined, falling 1.1% versus consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. New home sales in November also came in slightly below consensus expectations; the Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 664,000 compared with expectations for 670,000, Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported on Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits declined slightly to 219,000 for the week ended December 21, the lowest reading since mid-November.

U.S. stocks declined during the week, although a rally on Friday helped major indexes recover some of their lost ground. Losses were broad-based, though smaller-cap indexes generally fared worst. The Fed’s rate cut announcement on Wednesday (25bps) was largely expected. However, sentiment turned negative as investors digested hawkish forecasts and commentary from Fed officials regarding the path forward for interest rates. The hawkish tone helped drive the S&P 500 Index lower by nearly 3% for the day, its second-worst day of the year. Political uncertainty in the form of a looming government shutdown also seemed to rattle investor confidence. In economic news, the U.S. Real GDP grew 3.1% in Q3, outpacing a previous estimate of 2.8%, partially owing to increases in consumer spending.

Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.

Nasdaq was the week's biggest winner among the US majors equity indices in a week that saw the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all continue to hit record highs, while the Russell 2000 Index declined after back-to-back weeks of outperformance versus its larger-cap peers. The Russell 1000 growth index outperformed Russell 1000 value by 553bps, the largest margin since March 2023. Sector performance was also widely dispersed as consumer discretionary, communication services, and IT stocks all gained over 3% for the week, while energy, utilities, and materials stocks all fell over 3%. Geopolitical headlines through the first half of the week were largely dominated by French and South Korean politics, though these seemed to have limited impact on U.S. markets.

Stocks recorded another week of gains, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and S&P 400 MidCap Index to record intraday highs. Domestic policy and geopolitical factors appeared to be large drivers of sentiment during the week. On Monday, investors seemed to welcome President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent, a veteran hedge fund manager, as Treasury secretary. News of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, first reported Monday and formally announced Tuesday, seemed to support sentiment and may have overshadowed news that the president-elect plans to quickly impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

Major stock indexes finished the week higher, recovering some of the previous week’s losses despite some continuing uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration’s policies and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Gains for the week were also relatively broad-based, with small caps outperforming large-caps and an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index outpacing the main index. Shares of Nvidia ended the week little changed as investors appeared to be generally satisfied with the results, although the guidance for Q4 was lighter than some analysts expected. Solid US economic data sparked a rethink of Fed rate-cut expectations, with the curve now pricing in a 50-50 chance of 2 or 3 cuts by the end of 2025.

US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.