Fast food for thought

Insights and research on global events shaping the markets

U.S. equities gained this week, largely driven by bets that the Fed would lower rates at its next meeting in September. The Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index by the widest weekly margin since April. July CPI US inflation data - published on Wednesday - showed that headline inflation cooled modestly in July, with MoM inflation dropping to 0.2% from June’s reading of 0.3%. However, core inflation accelerated to 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month. Year-over-year jumped to 3.1%, the highest since February. Later in the week, however, the BLS reported that its producer price index (PPI) reaccelerated in July, rising 0.9% compared with estimates for around a 0.2% increase.

U.S. equity indexes advanced for the week, rebounding from the prior week’s sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite performed best, closing the week at a record high, followed by the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes. Apple announced that it would invest $100 billion—in addition to a previously announced $500 billion—in developing U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years, which would reportedly exempt the company from the Trump administration’s steep tariffs on semiconductors. Shares of the iPhone maker closed the week 13.3% higher, helping support the broader indexes. The Trump administration’s new round of global tariffs kicked in on Thursday but the market reaction appeared to be more muted compared with other recent tariff actions.

U.S. stock indexes recorded their worst week since the early April sell-off. The Russell 2000 fell 4.2%, followed by the Dow Jones (down 2.92%) and S&P 500 (down 2.36%). The Nasdaq Composite held up best (down “only” 2.17%) helped by Microsoft and Meta which reported strong earnings. According to data from FactSet, of the 66% of S&P 500 companies that have reported through Friday morning, 82% have beaten consensus earnings estimates, with a blended earnings growth rate of 10.3%. On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order to raise tariffs on the vast majority of U.S. trading partners, effective August 7, which appeared to weigh heavily on stock indexes on Friday.

US stocks posted gains for the week, pushing the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite to record highs for the 2nd consecutive week. The Dow Jones rose 1.26%, while the Russell 2000 index climbed over 0.9%. Stocks were supported by headlines around several new trade deals during the week, including announcements that the U.S. had reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Reports that the U.S. and EU are progressing toward a deal ahead of August 1 also appeared to boost sentiment during the week. On the earnings front, Alphabet gained more than 4% as results beat consensus estimates, while the company’s commentary around AI appeared to provide a tailwind for AI-related stocks.

The major U.S. stock indexes finished the week modestly lower, with the Nasdaq Composite Index holding up best. New tariffs were announced this week in more than 20 countries, with the 90-day pause extended to August 1. However, market reaction was muted compared with previous tariff announcements. NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Mag 7 group of mega-cap stocks. On the macro side, US inflation, both June CPI and PPI came in on the low side with little signs that tariffs are pressuring prices higher. US core retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in June, and US industrial Production was up 0.3% - highlighting the resilience of the US consumer and manufacturing base amidst so much policy uncertainty.

The major U.S. stock indexes finished the week modestly lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index holding up best. Tariff news dominated the headlines, but market reaction was muted compared with previous tariff announcements. Growth stocks held up modestly better than value. NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of mega cap stocks. U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% trade levies on major trading partners South Korea and Japan, as well as tariffs at varying levels on other countries, including Canada, South Africa, Thailand, and Malaysia. He also said that his administration would dramatically increase Brazil’s tariff to 50% in a move linked to the country’s legal proceedings against former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher. Small-caps index Russell 2000 outperformed (+3.5% over the week) followed by the Dow Jones (+2.3%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at all-time highs for the second week in a row. Much of the focus during the week centered around the progress of the Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, which was narrowly passed by the Senate on Tuesday and by the House of Representatives on Thursday afternoon. Trade-related headlines also continued to flow during the week, with President Trump announcing a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday and making comments around negotiations with several other trade partners ahead of the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is expected to end.

US stocks rallied on the back of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, reports that the U.S. and China signed a new trade deal, and comments from several U.S. government officials indicating that more trade deals were close to the finish line. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite, up 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively, both closed at record highs. On the macro side, Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation measure showed modest uptick in May, up 2.7% yoy. S&P Global reported that U.S. business activity expanded in June, albeit at a moderately slower rate than in May. U.S. Treasury yields decreased in response to some of the week’s softer-than-expected economic data as well as comments from several Fed officials indicating rate cuts could be on the table sooner than many have been anticipating.

U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week narrowly mixed, fluctuating throughout the week amid a slew of headlines regarding escalating tensions in the Middle East. Smaller-cap indexes performed best for the week, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which posted modest gains. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the funds rate unchanged. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers expect to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year, unchanged from their previous projection; however, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could be in a position to cut rates as soon as July.

U.S. stocks declined during the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 1.32% and dropping back into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite fell to a lesser extent and remained positive year-to-date. Major indexes were broadly higher through Thursday, buoyed by some better-than-expected economic data releases as well as reports that trade talks between the U.S. and China had led to a preliminary agreement to ease recent trade tensions. However, sentiment quickly turned negative on Friday morning on news that Israel had launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders, with a pledge of more attacks to come, to which Iran reportedly responded with a retaliatory attack later on Friday.

1 2 3 4 5

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks