WEEKLY SUMMARY: Tariffs, weak job data & geopolitics crushed stocks
U.S. stock indexes recorded their worst week since the early April sell-off. The Russell 2000 fell 4.2%, followed by the Dow Jones (down 2.92%) and S&P 500 (down 2.36%). The Nasdaq Composite held up best (down “only” 2.17%) helped by Microsoft and Meta which reported strong earnings. According to data from FactSet, of the 66% of S&P 500 companies that have reported through Friday morning, 82% have beaten consensus earnings estimates, with a blended earnings growth rate of 10.3%. On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order to raise tariffs on the vast majority of U.S. trading partners, effective August 7, which appeared to weigh heavily on stock indexes on Friday. Fed holds rates steady for fifth consecutive meeting while core PCE July numbers seem to indicate that inflation accelerates. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, well below consensus estimates for a gain of around 115,000. The readings for May and June were also revised down by a total of 258,000. The worse-than-expected data—along with new tariff announcements—helped send U.S. Treasury yields across most maturities lower on Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling nearly 16 bps to 4.22%. In the rest of the world, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 2.57% lower amid disappointment with the framework trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. Gold ripped higher on Friday (best day in two months). Cryptos tumbled.
Have a great week-end
Charles for the team
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U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher, boosted by dovish comments from some Fed officials and several weaker-than-expected economic reports that seemed to reinforce the idea that a December rate cut remains on track. Small-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers, as the Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.5%. The Nasdaq Composite also posted strong returns, rebounding from the prior week’s sell-off as concerns regarding elevated valuations and spending on AI appeared to take a back seat to optimism around the growth potential from the technology. In economic news, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% in September (below +0.4% estimates). September PPI rose 0.3% in September, in line with estimates.


