S&P500 earnings estimates for 2025 have rolled over and declined over the last few weeks.
At the same time, the S&P 500 continued to rise making valuations even more stretched (expensive). Will earnings estimates catch up or stocks fall? Source: Global Markets Investor
Here's the outperformance (vs. S&P 500) of a pure play Trump index created by Alpine Macro.
It owns DJTA, Bitcoin, Tesla and GEO equally-weighted
The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, just saw 9 consecutive days of money inflows, the longest streak since 2014.
Investors have poured $18 billion into $SPY over these 9 days as post-election buying continues. Since 2000, $SPY has only seen 4 streaks with 9 to 10 straight days of inflows: in 2007, 2013, 2014, and 2016. Massive inflows supported the 5%+ run in the S&P 500 following the election. Over the last 13 months, the S&P 500 has now added more than $15 TRILLION of market cap. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman Sachs
The S&P 500 $SPY P/E Ratios Heat Map.
Besides Banks and Energy, everything is wildly overvalued. $SPY Source: Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv
ARE US STOCKS OVERVALUED ⁉
☢ S&P 500 earnings yield FELL below the 10-year Treasury yield for the 1st time in 22 YEARS. ❗In other words, less risky (theoretically) 10-year Treasury is paying MORE than the S&P 500. ⚠This could imply lower than average forward returns for S&P 500. Source: The Daily Shot, Global Markets Investor
$SPY The S&P 500 had its best-performing week of 2024. Here are the top-performing stocks from last week: 👇🏻
Source: The Future Investors @ftr_investors
Following the election, the SP500 typically rallies through inauguration day before moderating.
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, The Daily Shot
BlackRock had its LARGEST inflow in history with 14,588
Only 450 $BTC were mined...
