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This has never been seen before: The top 10 US stocks have accounted for 59% of the S&P 500’s gains since the October 2022 bottom.
By comparison, the next 10 stocks have contributed just 11% while the remaining 480 stocks have contributed 30%. Over this period, the top 10 stocks' share of the S&P 500’s is up 13 percentage points, now reflecting a record 40% of the index. The top 3 stocks alone reflect a record 21% of the index's market cap. A few stocks are driving the entire market. Source: Bloomberg
Yearly candles on the S&P 500. This looks like a multi-year breakout. 🐂 $SPX
Source: Trend Spider
🚨 The S&P 500 is down 1.0% in December but most of the sectors have been in a carnage:
Energy -10.7% Materials -9.9% Real Estate -8.9% Utilities -7.6% Industrial -7.0% Healthcare -5.3% Financials -4.6% Consumer Staples -4.0% 🚨 Tech holds this market. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
At 5,971, the S&P 500 is over 500 points above above the highest 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists and 23% above the average target (4,861).
$SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
The long S&P500 ($SPY) / short US treasuries 20y+ ($TLT) makes a lot of sense from a macro perspective but is very consensual and looks very extended
See ratio below "In the end, trees don't grow to the sky, and few things go to zero." Howard Marks Source: Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest
Can Wall Street Get It Right?
The annual tradition of predicting where the S&P 500 will land at year-end has once again raised eyebrows. As Wall Street strategists share their projections for 2025, historical missteps in forecasting cast doubt on their accuracy. 2022: A challenging year where the S&P 500 fell by 19.4%, far worse than predictions. 2023: Despite experts forecasting a modest gain of 6.2%, the index surprised with a remarkable rise of 24.2%. 2024: A consensus estimate of 3% growth was dwarfed by an actual gain of nearly 24% by mid-December. For 2025, the consensus now points to a 9.6% price gain, translating to an 11%+ total return with dividends. source :bloomberg, economicstime
The S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equalweight are on track to have roughly the same price gain in 2024 as they did in 2023.
Equalweight in 2023: +11.56 Equalweight in 2024: +11.47 Cap-weighted in 2023: +24.23% Cap-weighted in 2024: +24.34% source : bespoke
The next 7 days are officially the Santa Claus Rally period.
Down last year, but down back-to-back years only twice since 1950. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick
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