Remember when early August the strengthening of the yen and ensuing carry trade unwinding was seen as a huge threat for the equity market?
Fast forward to mid-September: the S&P 500 and USDJPY are taking two opposite directions. The market doesn't seem to care anymore about the yen... Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Is buying the dip still the best strategy? The average return when buying the dip in the S&P 500 varies based on timeframe.
Within 6 months of buying a -10% decline, the average return has been +13% compared to a +4% return when holding stocks through the pullback and recovery. Within 12 months, the "buy the dip" strategy has returned a +22% gain, beating a +5% return with the buy and hold strategy. On the other hand, buying dips over a 5-year period has returned +33%, well below a +75% from simply holding. In other words, buying the dip has been a successful strategy during periods of market volatility.
$SPX The last two bullish engulfing patterns:
Today and May 31st. Source: Frank Cappelleri
Semiconductors index: Was it a "head & shoulders top" (going to bring down the entire stock market)?
Or is it just a correction in a bull market??? Source: J-C Parets
Are rate cuts necessarily bullish for stocks?
Not if they're associated with an economic downturn and earnings decline. E.g 2007-2008 Source: Charlie Bilello
🚨IS THIS THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION BUBBLE IN HISTORY?🚨
Magnificent 7 stocks now account for ~32% of the S&P 500, near the all-time high. This share has increased by 10 percentage points in just 1.5 years. This is even 10 percentage pts HIGHER than in the 2000 DOT-COM BUBBLE. Source: LSEG Datastream, Global Markets Investor
Glowtime Day: $AAPL PEG ratio high at 3.03x
Below a SP500 heatmap with PEG ratios... Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, Bloomberg
2024 S&P Sector Returns...
Utilities $XLU: +22% Consumer Staples $XLP: +17% Tech $XLK: +6% Consumer Discretionary $XLY: +2% Leadership has turned. This is a big shift from 2023.
