Syz the moment

S&P 500 Price to Book (assets minus liabilities) ratio is now 5.2x, the most on record and in line with the 2000 Dot-Com bubble burst. When excluding the Magnificent 7 group, the P/B ratio is 4.2x, near a record. Source: Global Markets Investor

43% of global investors* believe Long Magnificent 7 is the most crowded trade, down from ~54% in August. Has the trade become overcrowded? *BofA survey of 195 participants with $503 billion assets. Source: Global Markets Investor

In 5 out of the last 6 quarters, the S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7 profit growth has been negative. It is estimated the Mag 7 net income will grow by 18% in Q3 2024 while the other 493 firms by 1%. Note however 2 changes in trend: 1) The Mag 7 eps growth is slowing down (from a high base); The non-Mag 7 EPS growth is picking up (and turning slightly positive) from a low base. Sometimes the second derivative is more important than the absolute number. Time will tell... Source: The Global Markets Investor

Source: GS Prime, Barchart

Utilities $XLU +27% Amazon $AMZN +21% QQQ +16% Microsoft $MSFT +15% Apple $AAPL +13% Google $GOOGL +13% Tesla $TSLA -9% Source: Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond, Bloomberg

Magnificent 7 stocks now account for ~32% of the S&P 500, near the all-time high. This share has increased by 10 percentage points in just 1.5 years. This is even 10 percentage pts HIGHER than in the 2000 DOT-COM BUBBLE. Source: LSEG Datastream, Global Markets Investor

• $AAPL Apple: 5.0% • $META Meta: 5.2% • $AMZN Amazon: 11.9% • $MSFT Microsoft: 12.3% • $GOOGL Alphabet: 17.7% • $NVDA Nvidia: 20.3% • $TSLA Tesla: 48.6% Source: Koyfin

Nvidia, $NVDA, is on track for its largest daily drop since April 2024. As discussed during our H2 outlook, volatility is coming back with a vengeance ahead ahead of US elections. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg