🚨 The AI Boom's Ticking Time Bomb: Debt, Valuation, and the Cost of Capital
BNY just dropped a massive reality check. Everyone is celebrating the Magnificent 7's AI investments, but how are they paying for this revolution? The playbook is simple: Free Cash Flow OR... massive debt. (Look at Oracle's recent debt noise—it's a leading indicator). The Math That Makes Value Investors Sweat: The Mag 7 (ex-Tesla) forward P/E is nearly 30x. That's nowhere near "value investor comfort." The market is demanding a clear ROI by 2026. The pace of this AI buildout is directly tied to two things: Future Earnings and the Cost of Capital. The Domino Effect: If Margins Drop or Borrowing Costs Rise, the AI investment boom must slow down. That deceleration hits U.S. GDP hard. Hello, Federal Reserve and Government intervention? The feedback loop's timing will dictate how the entire equity market trades. 2026's Real Headwinds: Everyone expects lower rates, but don't forget the silent killers: Term Premiums Government Deficits (Crowding out private investment) Future Tax Risks The core question isn't whether AI is real—it's whether the current investment pace is sustainable until the returns finally justify the spending. This is the true AI bubble concern. Are we watching a self-sustaining cycle, or an investment spree built on borrowed time (and borrowed money)? Source: Neil Sethi
Magnificent 7s Cash Position💰:
$MSFT: $102 Billion $GOOGL: $98 Billion $AMZN: $94 Billion $NVDA: $56 Billion $AAPL: $55 Billion $META: $44 Billion $TSLA: $41 Billion Patient Investor @patientinvestt
Mag 7 Stocks now outperforming the S&P 500 by the largest margin in history
Source: Barchart
🚀 Big Tech just confirmed it — the AI spending boom is still in fire 🔥
This week’s earnings from the MAG7 show that AI CapEx is accelerating into 2026, powered by massive, structural demand that shows no signs of slowing. 💰 This investment wave isn’t just a side story, it’s the engine driving the bull market. 👀 Now the big question everyone’s asking: Will the rumored OpenAI IPO mark the peak of the AI bull run… or the next leg higher? Source: WSJ
All the Magnificent 7 stocks are now in positive territory for the year!
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Eye-opening chart, while earnings of Magnificent 7 have had an unprecedented run, earnings of S&P 493 have been more or less stagnant since 2020.
Is the US economy really so strong? Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
Since the April 8 low, the SP500 has rallied by 30%.
This is powered by a 50% surge in Mag7 stocks, while the rest of the S&P 500 members gained 21%. Source: Augur Infinity on X
You can almost see the "Ex Mag 7" on this chart when looking at the Bloomberg Mag 7's gain of 2,800% since inception in 2015. Almost...
Bloomberg Mag 7 since March 2015: +2,800% Bloomberg 500 Ex Mag 7 since March 2015: +129% Source: Bespoke
