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15 Jan 2025

Actual S&P 500 earnings growth has exceeded expectations during the last few years.

Will it be the case again this quarter? Source: The Market Ear, Factset

9 Sep 2024

In our H2 outlook, we highlighted 5 key themes expected to unfold before year-end. As we approach the final quarter, most are materializing, albeit with some notable uncertainties:

- Global economic growth is normalizing, but recent macro data, particularly in the US and Europe, signal an increased recession risk. While a soft-landing remains the core scenario, the likelihood of a hard landing has grown since H2 began. - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing, with a looming risk of a sudden and significant increase in unemployment. - The Fed is anticipated to make cuts. The question on everyone's mind is whether we will see a substantial jumbo rate cut (50bps) initially. - While sector and style rotation is underway, the defensive lean is proving to be more pronounced than initially anticipated. - Volatility is on the rise, with some moderation thus far (aside from August 3rd). The big question is whether we will experience real market stress leading up to the elections.

2 Sep 2024

Speculators have turned Bearish on the U.S. Dollar for the first time since February 🚨

Source: Barchart, Bloomberg

17 Jan 2024

Goldman Client Survey Shows Geopolitics Is Biggest Risk in 2024 –

Source: Bloomberg

24 Jul 2023

Credit Suisse raised its S&P 500 Year-End target to 4,700, becoming most Bullish Wall Street Bank

But as shown below, majority of Wall Street strategists have revised upwards their estimates for 2013. Source: TME, Bloomberg

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