The NVDA fade
The short-term gap between NVDA and SMH continues to widen, with the month-end dislocation pushing into extreme territory. Source: The Market Fear
"We are going to need a bigger boat..." ($NVDA...)
The biggest US tech firms now plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, primarily on AI data center equipment. Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800B / $1.1 trillion in 2026 / 2027 (versus $765B / $950B) prior. That means we will also to need a lot of energy and raw materials for that !!! Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley
Nvidia's Forward PE ratio is down 47 points, from 68.3x in Nov, 2021 to 21.3x today.
For context, Walmart trades at 43.1x, double Nvidia. Source: Matt Cerminaro
NVIDIA posted its best quarter ever
$68.1B revenue (+73% YoY) and Q1 guidance of ~$78B—but the stock fell, erasing post-earnings gains. CFO Colette Kress flagged potential long-term AI disruption from Chinese chipmakers. China exposure remains limited, with zero H200 chip sales and tariffs on U.S.-licensed shipments. The market reaction shows that when expectations are extremely high, even record results may disappoint. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
Wondering why memory chips stocks are on fire? Just watch the chart below courtesy of Bloomberg.
Nvidia's chips consume more RAM witch each generation. Rubin requires as much memory as several powerful PCs.
NVIDIA halts plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI.
First Apple ditched now NVIDIA planning to pull back.. Source: Brainz - Systematic AI Execution Platform (SAIEP)
Nvidia CEO said yesterday that the “Memory Bottleneck is Severe”
SK Hynix ($330B) $MU ($355B) Samsung ($595B). Wait and see the look on everyone’s face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny $AXTI ($1B) after the China’s new export controls. Source: Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Interesting comments by UBS on Nvidia's acquisition of Groq
Source: UBS
