To put things into perspective. As Nvidia's profits have risen faster than its share price in recent years, share is trading at a P/E ratio of ~30.
But of course, this is also due to the high margins. If they were to be disrupted at some point due to increasing competition, the low valuations would be over. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Nvidia Had Only Seen a Downside Surprise in Earnings vs. Expectations Three Times in the Last Ten Years
NVDA, Earnings Call : Nvidia says demand still far exceeds supply for its products. Conditions are "excellent" for continued growth into 2025. Nvidia spent $9.2 billion in cash on share buybacks. Data Center revenue of $18.4 billion is a new record and above expectations. Nvidia has not received licenses to ship restricted chips to China. -) Nvidia stock surged 8% in after-hours trading source : koyfin
$NVDA NVIDIA Q4 FY24 by App Economy Insights.
“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point.” ~ Jensen Huang. Nvidia crushed already high expectations: • Revenue +22% Q/Q to $22.1B ($1.6B beat). • Gross margin 76% (+2pp Q/Q). • Operating margin 62% (+4pp Q/Q). • Non-GAAP EPS $5.16 ($0.52 beat). Q1 FY25 guidance: • Revenue ~$24.0B ($2.0B beat). SUMMARY OF NVIDIA, $NVDA, EARNINGS CALL: 1. Nvidia says demand still far exceeds supply for its products 2. Conditions are "excellent" for continued growth into 2025 3. Nvidia spent $9.2 billion in cash on share buybacks 4. Data Center revenue of $18.4 billion is a new record and above expectations 5. Nvidia has not received licenses to ship restricted chips to China 6. Started to ship alternatives to China market in "small volumes". Source: App Economy Insights, The Kobeissi Letter
S&P 500 futures have staged a ~1.5% reversal after the market's reaction to Nvidia, $NVDA, earnings.
Since 3:00 PM ET, the S&P 500 has added $600 BILLION of value and Nvidia is itself is responsible for ~$220 BILLION of the value being added. In other words, more than ONE THIRD of the S&P 500's value added since 3:00 PM ET came from Nvidia. Nvidia is now just ~20% smaller than the entire combined value of Germany's stock market.... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Nvdia results are out - $NVDA beats in revenue & earnings - the stock is up more than 8% after hours.
"Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations." – Co-founder & CEO, Jensen Huang Nvidia reported fourth fiscal quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s forecast for earnings and sales, and said that revenue during the current quarter would be better than expected, even against elevated expectations for massive growth. Revenue +265% *Data Center +409% *Gaming +56% *Professional Vis. +105% *Automotive -4% EBIT +983% *marg. 62% (21) EPS +765% Source: Quartr
nvidia $NVDA EPS growth projections (grey) aren't modest...
Source: TME, Bloomberg
Nvidia options signal nearly $200bn swing after earnings.
Prices for short-term calls and puts imply a 10.6% move in the chipmaker’s shares on Thursday. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Nvidia : Place Your Bets
Nvidia is expected to report earnings Today after market close. Wall Street consensus for adjusted Q4 EPS is $4.60 a share, up more than 700% from 65 cents a year ago. Q4 revenue is expected to be $20.43 billion. A miss in earnings or lower forward guidance is likely to cause a wave of profit taking in the technology sector and drag the broader market with it. A stronger than expected report could add fuel to upward momentum and draw in more investors who are already experiencing some degree of FOMO from the stock’s dazzling performance. Nvidia stock price is up 46.6% so far in 2024, adding to its 238% gain in 2023. Source : forbes
