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27 Mar 2024

China's trade surplus in the first 2 months of 2024 is the biggest EVER.

Here's China's dilemma. It's caught in a deflationary debt spiral. Exports are a way out. But - at the same time - China's relations with the "developed" world are deteriorating. Source chart: Robin Brooks

26 Mar 2024

With real estate bubble bursting, no access to foreign equities and bitcoin, no wonder that people are flocking to gold.

Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet

25 Mar 2024

In recent years, India’s economy has continued to boom, just as China and other fast-growing countries have endured a post-pandemic slowdown.

But, the country has a long way to go to replicate China’s success, after the economic fortunes of the two diverged dramatically some 30 years ago. Indeed, as recently as 1992, the GDP per capita of the 2 countries — which share a 2,167-mile border — was roughly equivalent: today, India’s is roughly one-fifth of China’s reported $12.7k. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that India made up 15% of global growth in 2023, and, having overtaken the UK as the world’s 5th largest economy in 2022, it’s now on track for 3rd place behind the US and China by 2030. Source: Chartr

22 Mar 2024

China scrutinizes PwC role in $78 billion Evergrande fraud case

Chinese authorities are examining the role of PWC in China Evergrande Group’s accounting practices after the developer was accused of a $78 billion fraud, ramping up pressure on the global accounting giant that audited a slew of developers before the sector’s meltdown.

Source: Bloomberg

18 Mar 2024

China kicks off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations - CNBC

- Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters’ poll, while industrial production increased 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2%, more than the forecast of 3.2%. - Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 14.4% from a year ago during the first two months of the year.

15 Mar 2024

The Chinese government has gone "Full BoJ style", purchasing $45b of ETFs in the past 2 months to pump up market.

They already own like 1/5 of all equity ETFs. They moved to buying small caps because it moves stocks more. Purchases could reach $100b this year. Source: Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas

15 Mar 2024

A great thread by The Kobeissi Letter ->

While everyone is focused on AI, China has taken electric vehicles (EVs) to a whole new level. China currently has 2.5 MILLION EV chargers compared to just 130,000 in the US. China has an EV charger for every 7 cars while the US has an EV charger for every 18 cars. Meanwhile, China's EV chargers provide 4 kilowatt per hour compared to 1 kilowatt per hours in the US. To put this into perspective, the energy difference is like powering 17 standard light bulbs in the US versus 67 bulbs in China. Is China the new leader of EV technology?

11 Mar 2024

International allocation Japan vs China

Source: BofA, The Daily Shot, Win Smart

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