Chinese-financed infrastructure projects across Latin America
Source: Amazing Maps
China’s GDP grew 4.5% in the October to December period, slowing from 4.8% in the third quarter, the weakest in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts
Full-year economic output came in at 5%, meeting the official target of around 5%. Retail sales grew 0.9% in December from a year earlier, the slowest growth since late 2022. Industrial output climbed 5.2% in December, topping expectations for a 5% growth. Source: CNBC
China last year registered the lowest number of births since records began
This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline as policymakers grapple with a demographic crisis. Source: FT
The $1.19 Trillion Elephant in the Room
China’s December trade data just leaked, and it’s a masterclass in contradiction: ✅ The Good News: Exports beat expectations by 2x. Imports are at a 3-month high. The annual trade surplus hit a record high (up 20%). ❌ The Bad News: Trade with the U.S. is in freefall. Exports to the U.S. are down 30%. Imports from the U.S. are down 29%. What does this mean for 2026? - Diversification is king. China is filling the "U.S. gap" elsewhere. - Tariffs are working (but maybe not as intended). They are reducing bilateral trade, but China’s total global footprint is still growing. - Supply chains are shifting. Expect "China + 1" to move from a buzzword to a survival requirement. Source: CNBC
Chinese Households now have available cash totaling 160 TRILLION Yuan, the equivalent of more than $22 Trillion USD 🚨📈🤑🥳
Source: Barchart, Financial Times
📢 China's Economic Slowdown Deepens in November 📉
China's economic performance in November fell short of expectations across key metrics, signaling a deepening slowdown as authorities grapple with weak demand, property sector decline, and supply-side constraints. Key data points: 🔴 Retail Sales: Rose 1.3% year-on-year (YoY), sharply missing the 2.8% forecast and slowing significantly from 2.9% in October. 🔴 Industrial Production: Climbed 4.8% YoY, missing the 5.0% forecast and marking its weakest growth since August 2024. 🔴 Fixed-Asset Investment (YTD): Contracted 2.6% over the January-November period (worse than the 2.3% forecast). This contraction deepened from the prior period (1.7% drop) and represents the sharpest slump since the 2020 pandemic outbreak. Source: CNBC
J-C Parets: When we talk about healthy sector rotation, this is exactly what that means.
High Beta is making new all-time highs, AND it's making new all-time highs relative to Low Volatility. That's not weak breadth. That's not deterioration. That's called a raging bull market.
Lots of people are going on about cheap electricity in China and how this will allow it to win the AI race with the US.
Here's the thing about that electricity: it's from burning fossil fuels like coal - see chart below courtesy of Robin Brooks. Note however that China has massive plans to progressively replace fossil fuels by renewables and nuclear.
