China’s economy gathered steam in the first quarter
Robust exports offset sluggish domestic consumption, though an energy shock stemming from the Iran war threatens to sap global demand and undercut that momentum. ➡️ Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. ➡️ Urban fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier. ➡️ China’s retail sales grew 1.7% in March from a year earlier. Industrial output expanded 5.7%. ➡️ The urban survey-based unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, picking up from 5.3% in February. In the first quarter, China’s exports grew 14.7% from a year earlier in terms of U.S. dollars, the fastest pace since early 2022, according to EUI. That said, that growth has stalled as the Middle East conflict rages on. As the world’s largest oil importer and a heavily export-reliant economy, China is vulnerable to an oil shock that’s already slowing trade, pushing up factory costs, and darkening the outlook for the rest of the year. Source: CNBC
China's oil supply pre-war:
29% Other Middle East, Hormuz blocked 26% Rest of world , scrambling 20% Russia, back to sanction as US just confirmed 14% Saudi Arabia , 700K bpd offline 11% Iran, blockaded⚠️ That's 54% of China's oil either blocked, sanctioned or disrupted. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
Trump said China had allegedly agreed not to supply weapons to Iran as part of deal tied to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Says he is opening the strait "for China too, and the World" - He expects to meet Xi soon. Claims Xi Jinping will give him "a big, fat, hug" when he visits in a few weeks - Says both countries are "working together smartly and very well" - Adds the U.S. remains "far better than anyone else" at fighting if needed - "This situation will never happen again"
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade
Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds And this has nothing to do with China paying higher yields… - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the biggest energy crisis, foreigners are choosing panda bonds over USTs. Source: Bloomberg, Lukas Ekwueme
Donald Trump has asked Beijing to postpone his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping in China, casting doubt on the long-awaited summit between the US president and his Chinese counterpart.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday afternoon that he wanted to delay the summit by a month as he grapples with the war in Iran. He had been scheduled to leave for Beijing in just over two weeks. “I’d love to but because of the war, I want to be here,” Trump said, adding the White House had requested Beijing “delay” the visit by “a month or so”. “It’s very simple. I have got a war going on,” he added. Trump’s push to delay the summit comes as the White House deals with the dramatic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, has had a major impact on the price of crude, sending the cost of petrol soaring in the US just months before critical midterm elections. Source: FT
While prices are fungible, the biggest loser from a Hormuz closure in terms of actual physical oil is China
China is the main destination of the 13.1mm barrels of oil that passes through the Strait every day. Source: zerohedge, Goldman Sachs
How much of China AI depends on US
Source: The Times Of India @timesofindia
A mind-blowing robot kung fu show took place during China’s 2026 Spring Festival Gala (Lunar New Year Gala) on February 16.
It was entirely real not AI or CGI. Humanoid robots from Unitree Robotics performed synchronized martial arts routines with swords, poles, and nunchucks alongside children on live national television. Described as the world’s first fully autonomous humanoid robot kung fu performance, it highlighted major advances in balance, precision, and hardware within just 12 months. While commercialization still faces challenges like cost and reliability, the performance signals China’s rapid progress in humanoid robotics. Source: Evrim Kanbur (@WhileTravelling), Cyrus Janssen on X (@thecyrusjanssen)
